Thursday 16 February 2012

So, Who Will Blink First?

In the aftermath of Saturday’s disappointing defeat to Everton, there has been a wealth of ink dedicated to detailing what appear to be serious cracks in the relationship between Andre Villas Boas and his players. All this takes place against a backdrop of the reported continued presence of Roman Abramovich around the Cobham training ground.

Who is Roman there to keep an eye on? Is if the underperforming players or the ever more desperate and seemingly lost young manager?

Chelsea need to change, to develop. 1 year is a short time frame and perhaps it’s not reasonable to expect results to match the level of expectation at this stage. But the type of performance that was seen last weekend (flat) and the weekend previously (when Chelsea found a way not to win the game against Man Utd despite leading 3-0 after around 50 minutes) is not really acceptable. In the Man Utd game, the manager must face questions, especially over his choice of substitutes. However the players must take the majority of the blame for the Everton performance – it wasn’t the tactics, that’s for sure. So what course of action should be taken from here?

For me, it is simple. The revolving door policy for managers needs to stop. This is for a number of reasons. Firstly, Chelsea have spent an obscene amount of money (£64m) firing managers in the past 3 financial periods. This is the very definition of dead money. The corollary to this is that the termination clause in the current manager’s contract is ‘only’ £5m – not a huge amount of money by Chelsea’s standards. The next reason is that this is the first time Chelsea appear to have a long-term plan and want their manager to develop younger players rather than relying heavily on expensive veterans. A more experienced or big name manager would likely demand a large transfer kitty come the summer – that appears to go against what the club should and need to do – for both long term sustainability and short term financial reasons.

The importance of finishing 4th (4th is the best than can be hoped for at this point) cannot be understated for the club’s financial position and its ability to attract players. Chelsea received £44m for reaching the quarter-finals of last season’s Champions League, whereas Porto received less than £8m for winning the Europa League. This for me is the only compelling reason why the club would get rid of Villas Boas at this stage – Chelsea’s form is getting worse, and given that he does not seem to have the trust/support of the players, or indeed a sizeable number of fans, you would wonder how it will improve. The potential bounce that someone like, say, Guus Hiddink could provide in the short-term cannot be underestimated. But then Chelsea are back to square 1 – they need a manager and are no closer to meeting their long term goals.

If it’s the case that it’s the players or the manager, I asked the question earlier in the week ‘who has the most long-term value to Chelsea’ – is it the young and apparently talented manager or the aging and seemingly disgruntled senior players? Of the 3 answers I got, 2 seemed to feel that the manager should be cut loose. My view is pretty simple – back the manager, at least for another season. There is still a chance that Chelsea surge into 4th, and then, he has the entire summer to get what he needs to develop his side for next season, at the same time allowing those who don’t want to be a part of his project leave.

Monday 30 January 2012

The Mask is Slipping

So here we are. More than halfway through the season, and I think it’s fair to say, it’s been a letdown. Last season, despite an atrocious run of form either side of the Christmas period, Chelsea managed to finish 2nd in the Premier League and lost out to eventual runners-up Man Utd in the Champions League Quarter Finals.

Having lost 9 and drew 8 games all season, Chelsea have already lost 5 and drawn 5, so arguably are on the same pace as they were last season, but the opposition has improved – Man City and Spurs are on track to finish with more points than they ended up with last season, while Chelsea are on track to finish on 70 points – 1 point worse off than under Carlo Ancellotti last season – leaving us in 4th place. Contrast this with Spurs (on track to finish 19 points better off), Man City (21 points better off), Man Utd, (7 points better off) and you wonder – what was the point in getting rid of Ancelotti?

Today’s rumblings from Stamford Bridge have reinforced this belief. The manager seems to be entirely focused on the short-term – which is fine, but the results or the football haven’t been good enough to justify this sort of view. Maybe AvB feels under so much pressure that he has reverted into a conservative shell that sees Chelsea playing bland football and generally achieving victory by the narrowest of margins. That’s fair enough, but I thought he came with a mandate to play a more attacking form of football, or at least a more open brand that would yield more goals. This, allied with a financially rewarding termination clause in his contract should surely have encouraged him to foster a new approach at Stamford Bridge.
Let me clarify – I wanted Ancelotti to go at the end of last season as I felt that he was not the man to engineer the necessary changes at Stamford Bridge to ensure Chelsea’s continued competitiveness on both the domestic and European fronts. I welcomed the appointment of AvB as a young manager with interesting ideas and looked forward to an infusion of fresh talent and a new and more exciting brand of football. So far, I feel like I’ve been short changed.

For all the excitement and openness seen in games against Man Utd and Arsenal, Chelsea have largely reverted to the bland unimaginative football that became the norm under Ancelotti. Only the addition of Mata has brought any real imagination or creativity, and as he is only a cog in a bigger machine, we see only fleeting glimpses of his undoubted genius. Not since Zola have Chelsea had such a player, and hopefully we see more of him in a more influential role. So far, he has largely been used as an auxiliary winger, and much like Sturridge, I have to question if the manager is getting the best out of him in such a role.

And aside from the football itself, the development of the personnel is moving at a slower pace than I would like to see. Again, in today’s press conference, AvB apparently disavowed any interest in anything other than the short-term and seemed to have little to say on the potential role of Kevin De Bruyne at the club. Josh McEachran was allowed to fester on the fringes of the first team squad for much of the first half of the season before being allowed to join Swansea during over the January transfer window. I guess it might have been asking a lot for a loan to be arranged during the summer when AvB was not long in the job, but at the same time, it doesn’t appear that Josh got many chances to prove himself from September to January, although I will admit that I know nothing of what goes on on the training ground.

The most grievous mistake (as yet unpunished) is the failure to give Ryan Bertrand more first team opportunities. I have no idea if Bertrand is a tremendous prospect or not, but he’s all Chelsea have in terms of an alternative to Ashley Cole, who is no longer a dashing twentysomething, but has so far managed to avoid any meaningful absence through injury or suspension this season. The role of Romelu Lukaku has been a puzzle as well – someone who (physically) looks like he’s cut out for the Premier League as well as being a fresh face, has received little game time. Only Oriel Romeu has seen significant first team action so far, and his form has been encouraging. So let’s see more youth, eh?

It’s been a frustrating few weeks. The next 6 weeks will go a long way to determine whether this will be a successful season. Man Utd at the weekend, Napoli home and away and Birmingham in the FA Cup, and an away trip to Man City. There are also plenty of ‘easier’ ties, but nothing feels easy at the moment. If it doesn’t work out with AvB, I know of someone else who may be available next season. You know what I mean.

Sunday 11 December 2011

Growing Pains

A lot of the media are reacting to AvB’s rant by saying that they ‘were swift to point out the folly of not letting this clearly very able and emerging young coach last beyond the first few months of his tenure’ (taken from Phil McNulty's piece after Tuesday night's win over Valencia). But it was the media themselves who were questioning whether or not Abramovich was going to retain the coach!

AvB has already revealed himself to be more human than previous coaches at Stamford Bridge. Sure there’s arrogance, and a degree of ‘nerdiness’ (sic) but there has also been worry and passion on display. With Mourinho, it was mostly arrogance – save for medals thrown into the crowd – Ancelloti seemed mostly cold/detached to me – and it was hard to get much of a read from Scolari, Hiddink or Grant due to their short tenure at Stamford Bridge.

AvB has had to endure more than any of these managers and in a much shorter space of time. He has taken over a successful team from a famous and popular manager (who many in the media and in the crowd had huge sympathy with when he was turfed out at the end of last season). His buyout price was high and is well known. He has many well loved and experienced players in his team, who have been 1st choice since they joined the club and are close in age to the manager himself. He has been saddled with an expensive ‘flop’ (no names necessary). He has not faced media scrutiny and the pressure of a competitive league like this before. So it is not entirely surprising to see the mask slip a little.

He was humble/honest enough to admit after Tuesday night’s game to admit that Chelsea got the result they wanted but not by playing how he would like them to play. This suggests that he still believes that Chelsea need to change and will continue along the path we’ve seen over the past few months – where results have not matched expectations. Chelsea are in a position where there’s only a small amount of margin for error – Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs all look like they are credible challengers for 3rd and 4th place (I’ll assume for now that both Manchester teams will continue to occupy 1st and 2nd for now). Development is important, but results are vital.

I think it’s a good thing that the young man appears to be developing a chip in his shoulder. Maybe it’s earlier than normal, but look at the Fergusons and the Wengers – they have faced down perceived adversity in a similar fashion to the bristling AvB the other night. And, having watched clips from the press conference, I honestly didn’t think the behaviour was as sensational as that claimed by journalists on Twitter. But developing a siege mentality is only a good idea if you can lift that siege at some point.

The win over Valenica was vital, but AvB does not have a ‘signature win’ since he came to Stamford Bridge. The biggest opportunity was the away game against Man Utd back in October, but Chelsea fluffed their lines that day. Sure they have played (and lost to) Arsenal and Liverpool since – games they were expected to win. But Monday night represents another opportunity to make his mark. Man City has been the team to beat this season. And the 4th Estate will be watching closer than usual after Tuesday’s outburst. What better way to cause a real stir by taking out the champions elect?

Tuesday 22 November 2011

What I thought after the defeat to Liverpool 20/11/2011

It seems ludicrous to suggest that the coach is under pressure - but the owner has form. He does seem sure of himself - or at least that it will cost too much to fire him. A dangerous assumption. Let's be honest - the quality/competitive nature of the Premier League is much higher than that of the Liga Zon Sagres or even the Europa League for that matter (where would Braga feature in a Premier League table I wonder?). Note that this is a slight on the quality in those competitions, not a pat on the back for the Premier League.

Drogba looks a spent force, certainly as a starter against the likes of Liverpool. Whither Lukaku - who looks at least as physical as Drogba but would no doubt present something of an unknown to Premier League defenders. He showed again ts Arsenal that he relishes the physical side of the game, which looks like exactly what we needed against Liverpool.

Speaking of physical - it was evident that we were 2nd best in this respect in all areas of the pitch on Sunday - a few years ago there were very few (any?) teams who could match us in this regard. Age, injury, and distractions have diminished the powers of Drogba, Essien and Terry, and Carvalho and Ballack have been dealt away. Ramires is wiry and energetic, but Mata is too easily pushed around at times. 2 guys I can think of who would compete well in the Premier League would be Romeu and Lukaku - surely they need to get more game time?

Sunday 18 September 2011

I don't like cricket. Or cricket scores.

When all is said and done, I prefer my team to win games 1-0 or 2-1 than by the odd goal in 7 or 9. And I never like losing. Still, Chelsea played their part in an entertaining and open game, and even in defeat there were signs that point to an intriguing and encouraging future at Stamford Bridge.

I didn't expect Chelsea to win. Indeed, I feared slightly for them based going to Old Trafford given what I'd seen from both teams so far this season. My fear was somewhat justified - Chelsea's defence (and I use the word defence in the wider sense of the word, not just the back 4) was pretty poor for much of the game. The game was crying out for Mikel to play in a screening role. And I'm sorry, but to me, John Terry ishttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif waning - if for no other reason than he doesn't seem to have the organisational ability that your captain and number 1 centre back should have. As well as that, Michael Cox points out here that Chelsea's passing out of defence was seriously deficient to that displayed by the Man Utd centre backs - my view that either Alex or Luiz should start is reinforced by this stat. The next position I would target in the transfer market is right full back - Bosingwa just isn't good enough defending or attacking to justify his position in the starting XI in my mind. And I wonder about Chelsea's eagerness to sign Alvaro Perreira - was this to cover the left side of midfield or as a replacement for Ashley Cole?

I don't mean to dwell on the past - but we never looked this ragged under the Special One. There's been too many games now when we've looked defensively suspect - Sunderland and Aston Villa at the Bridge last season come to mind quickly - and ok, the line was probably right for Man Utd's 1st goal today and we should have got the offside decision, but how often did Man Utd look like scoring aside from that? And, as I wrote yesterday, we've conceded to some pretty average teams. Clean sheets need to become a habit again.

Again, I ask the question - what is Frank Lampard's role in this team. Of the 3 that started in midfield, Meireles provides the creativity, Ramires provides the energy - what does Lampard bring to the table? His goal threat is considerably less than it was, and he doesn't have the range of passing or defensive qualities to sit deep. He needs to re-invent himself to remain relevant.

It was also a rude awakening to the Premier League for Juan Mata who was too often not willing/able/aware enough to work back when Chelsea lost the ball. I have no doubt that he will be an excellent signing, but he needs to pull his weight when Chelsea don't have the ball!

As for Fernando Torres...

1. He finally showed what he is capable of when the ball is put in front of him (a 'vertical ball' as AvB would say) - it was an excellent finish and hopefully a sign of things to come (more on that later of course...)
2. I wonder about his choice to square for Ramires in the 1st half. Many would laud his unselfishness, but I want my number 1 striker to be selfish. Would a more confident Torres have taken the chance himself?
3. Yes, his miss towards the end of the game was shocking - it's a great pity his goal didn't come after this rather than before it, and came at a key moment in the game. I can only hope that he takes the positives with him from this game.

Finally, yes there were decisions that went against Chelsea today, but hey, these things seem to even themselves out, e.g. Rooney missed the generously given penalty. If we'd taken our chances (Ramires, Torres), we could have come away with a point. But for a change, I have a 'glass half full' outlook. We created a bunch of chances. Fernando Torres scored 1 and could have had a hat-trick. AvB made a bold decision at half-time that by and large worked. We are only 2 months or so into a project that will hopefully lead to more than a Premier League title. The future is bright. The future is Blue.

Saturday 17 September 2011

Man Utd v Chelsea Preview

So, Andre Vilas Boas (AvB) takes his 'new' Chelsea team to Old Trafford on Sunday looking for a watershed victory to really kick start his tenure at Stamford Bridge. The start so far has been solid but relatively unimpressive. It looks like change will be a slow process, and to be fair, why should it be any other way, given that this team finished 2nd last year and won it all the year before.

Man Utd rightly start as favourites, and I look at the game in terms of hope rather than expectation. Man Utd have been scoring for fun, and Chelsea have conceded to West Brom, Norwich and Sunderland. I can't see Chelsea shipping 8 or even 5 to Man Utd, but their abilty to score along with Chelsea's propensity to concede to pretty avarage teams concerns me.

But, Man Utd's defence is a strange mix of new and old and not so good at the moment, and Chelsea will have their chances I'm sure. Who starts in the middle of the front 3 will be interesting - it looks as if Drogba is certainly out, Anelka got the start against Sunderland last week, and Torres played against Leverkusen in midweek. Of the 2, I guess I'd have to go for Torres tomorrow - but I was much more optimistic about Torres' goalscoring abaility before the Old Trafford game last April than I am for tomorrow's game, and he was pretty subdued that day.

In saying that, Meireles and Mata look like good signings and just the sort of players that might create the sort of chances Torres needs to thrive. And I can't fault Torres' attitude in general - he played his part on Wednesday night, but I wonder would he have squared that ball if it were anyone other than Mata waiting?

So, Sturridge (who has just the sort of spark Chelsea have needed since they sent him on loan) last season looks certain to occupy the right side of the front 3, with Mata on the left. In midfield, I see Ramires and Meireles starting, with Mikel and Lampard likely to fill the remaining spot. Given it's an away game, I wonder if AvB would opt for Mikel? It would be interesting if Frank Lampard were to be left out for such a big game. On form, Ramires and Meireles deserve their spots and while Mikel has many critics, he is a very steady player, and will happily sit deep allowing those around him to play with more freedom. Lampard's role in the team is no longer clear to me I'm afraid.

At the back, it would be a huge shock if John Terry does not come back in. Given the form of Ashley Young, I'd be inclined to start Ivanovic at right back. This would leave Alex and David Luiz to fill the remainig centre back spot. Luiz of course was probably at fault for Hernandez' early opener in the April game, and seem to come in for unneecessarily harsh and public abuse from the then manager, Ancellotti. He returned to the side in midweek and scored a good goal and played some nice football, but was guilty of 2 reckless fouls that could have seen him sent off. Whether he is truly a centre back remains to be seen. So I would go for Alex - who a lot of people have written off after an average enough display against West Brom. But, I don't think he's a bad player, and maybe the time out has given him a chance to get back his focus. In my view, he was often the best defender behind Ivanovic at times last year.

For Man Utd, there aren't too many difficult choices, although goalkeeper could be an interesting one. Not that Alex Ferguson will entertain such questions. Their front 2 of Rooney and Hernandez and wingmen Young and Nani could cause Chelsea nightmares. Their weak link is probably the centre of midfield, where Chelsea will likely outnumber them in both numbers and quality. But Man Utd will probably move the ball quickly and expect their front players to work back and disrupt Chelsea posession (this could be a huge issue it both Mikel and Lampard play as both can be ponderous in possession these days) and so Chelsea's numerical advantage in that area may count for nothing.

There could be 2 wildcards for Chelsea. One is the defensive minded midfielder Oriel Romeu, who got a run out against Sunderland last weekend and performed steadily in limited action. The other more interesting option for AvB is Romelu Lukaku who could fill the 'No. 9' role - I'd like to see him up against Jonny Evans and giving David De Gea something to think about under the odd high ball. But, in line with the seeming evolution rather than revolution approach at Stamford Bridge, I suspect that a substutute appearance is the most either youngster can expect.

Given Man City's ordinary enough display during the week, a positive result for Chelsea in tomorrow's game could make many hastily re-think their 'only 2 teams can win it' proclomations of recent weeks. I'm not for a moment suggesting that Chelsea should be ranked ahead or Man Utd or Man City, but there's a lot of talent on the pitch and (potentially) on the sideline. I think they will be there or thereabouts come the end of the season. But I don't expect them to win tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter @CiaranMcMonagle

Sunday 14 August 2011

The God Delusion

So on Sunday, the Andre Vilas Boas (I’m going to take liberties and refer to him as ‘AvB’ from here on) era begins in earnest at Stoke. Other than the absent Michael Essien, I expect it to be as you were for Chelsea under Carlo Ancelotti. After all, none of the 3 summer signings are expected to feature and line-ups used in pre-season suggests that the same players will be deployed in the same positions as they were last season. All of which leads me to believe that AvB really believes his own hype.

To be fair, both Josh McEachran and Danny Sturridge have seen game time in pre-season. McEachran saw very limited action under Ancelotti and while Sturridge did make a few appearances, he was of course loaned out after the acquisition of Fernando Torres and scored goals for fun at Bolton while Torres drew blanks. Sturridge is suspended to start the season, so I guess we’ll have to wait a while to see if he figures in AvB’s plans.

I’ll admit to seeing little of AvB in action, except for last season’s Europa League final, which I was able to attend in person. His Porto side were clearly technically superior to Braga and contained all the star power, yet the manner of their victory was far from convincing and the style of play most unsatisfactory for a neutral like me. Much of it reminded me of watching Chelsea under the doleful Italian! Of course I know of the statistics from Porto’s season – all the goals scored – but I remember watching Chelsea 6 goals a game at the start of last season, but at the same time being largely unimpressed with the style of Chelsea’s play. Yes of course results are everything, but ultimately Chelsea’s season was not defined by how they fared against West Brom and Wigan. It came down to performances against the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United, where they lacked the ideas and creativity to break down higher quality opposition.

Chelsea’s problems seemed to me to stem from 3 areas last season – an aging squad, a lack of creativity, players who didn’t respond to the manager, or a manger who lost his appetite for the game. The squad issue has only been partially addressed – how often Romeu or Lukaku actually play remains to be seen (Lukaku could very well be loaned out), the lack of creativity could be solved by AvB, but I still think he needs to sign someone like Modric if things are to change dramatically from last season. As to whether the players will respond to him or not, that will be interesting – sure Porto had some stars, but no one in the league of Drogba, Torres, Cole, Lampard or Terry. Can AvB’s methodical approach inspire them to heights they failed to reach last season? Let’s assume that he still has an appetite for the game!

Anyway, I am being harsh – despite all that has been written, the guy has not managed a game that matters at Chelsea at yet. So he needs time. Will his patron give him time? Judging by the signings Chelsea have made this summer, it appears that they are trying to build for the future rather than sign quick fixes. Strange, given the moves they made in the last transfer window, but maybe Financial Fair Play is weighing on their mind? He’s a young manager, he’s trained under some of the best, including the original ‘Special One’, he’s won trophies, and he’s likely to be just a big a hit with the media as Ancelotti (who it seemed could do no wrong in the eyes of most scribes). I’m happy to give him time – I just hope his employer feels the same way.