Friday 21 August 2009

Bottom of the 9th for the 2009 Red Sox

So after being swept in NYC over 3 weeks ago, the Red Sox take on the Yankees again this weekend, this time in the friendly confines of Fenway Park. The Sox currently sit 6.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East, and even though there are 39 games left in the regular season after this weekend, a similar outcome as the NYC series would surely the Red Sox too much to do to catch the Yankees. There's still the Wild Card (or best runner-up to us here in Europe) to play for of course (the Red Sox lead the Texas Rangers by 1 game and Tampa Bay by 4), but anything less than 2 wins this weekend will not auger well for the stretch run and beyond, nor will it do much to sate a less than happy fan base.

The last Yankees series was pretty horrible for Boston. John Smoltz was battered in the opener (the Red Sox actually led on several occasion and Joba Chamberlain looked less than convincing) and was subsequently released, they lost in the 15th inning on Friday (when Junichi Tazawa made his first MLB appearance and gave up the game winning home run to Alex Rodriguez), and, despite his best start of the season at the time, Clay Buchholz ran into CC Sabathia in Ace form on Saturday. Worst of all, the Red Sox scored exactly 8 runs all weekend, 6 of them on the Thursday. It has largely been anaemic offence that has seen the Sox lose touch in the AL and find themselves in a dogfight for the Wild Card. Starting pitching, Brad Penny aside, has generally been good, and the bullpen, while not as stellar as it was earlier in the season, has not been costing them games. Even Penny gives them a chance to win, as good as most 5th starters, but the run support has frequently not been what it needs to be to compensate for his 5.22 Earned Run Average, which has not been helped by his 0-3 record and 7.54 ERA in his past 4 starts.

In short, the difference between the teams is this-the Yankees spent big over the winter and those signings (Sabathia, Teixeira, Burnett) are now proving their worth, while the Red Sox went cheap and low-risk (Smoltz, Baldelli, Green), and rarely has the adage 'you get what you pay for' been so apt. Add to this the fact that Yankees veterans are having good/great seasons (e.g. Johnny Damon and Derk Jeter), while Sox sluggers Ortiz, Drew and Lowell have been infective and/or injured for too many stretches this year.

The positives? Victor Martinez (hopefully he becomes the full-time catcher, but the Sox still seem to want Varitek doing the catching most nights), Clay Buchholz (he pitched well enough to win against NY and Detroit recently but came up against Sabathia and Verlander in great form plus he got no run support, however he got a win over Roy Halladay last night), signs of life from Ortiz in the Blue Jays series, and, the fact that there are still 42 games to go.

In the end, this series will not determine sucess or failure for either team this year-anything less than a trip to the play offs, and possibly a World Series, will be deemed less than satisfactory. Still, I'll be watching, and hoping for a Sox win!

Wednesday 19 August 2009

Not much to go on, but enough to write about

And so Ronaldo's absence hits home earlier in the season than Sir Alex might have imagined. Tonight's game at Turf Moor was the sort of game that Ronaldo would have found some way to salvage-if not through the penalty missed my Michael Carrick, then maybe through a more convincing header that that attempted by Berbatov late in the 2nd half. It's only been 2 games, but Man Utd have only managed 1 goal in total in their games against Birmigham and Burnley, and haven't exactly looked like they were worthy of much more. While the return of Ferdinand and Vidic will undoubtedly make them a better team, it won't necessarily open the floodgates at the other end of them team. Some stats to ponder-Wayne Rooney has never scored more than 16 goals in a season, Bernatov's record in the Premier League is about 1 in 3, and Michael Owen has not scored a goal since January.

The most impressive team so far (based on 2 games Arsenal fans!) is surely Spurs-a deserved home win against some people's favourite's Liverpool and a 5-1 thrashing of Hull at the KC, along with impressive starts by Bassong, Palacios and Defoe suggests Harry Redknapp may have a team to be reckoned with-and a more impressive squad than nearly any other team I can think of in the Premier League-with nearly 2 quality players to cover every position.

Liverpool made an inauspicious start-losing at Spurs with a sub-par performance from Torres and a general lack of quality in their midfield. Alberto Aquilani better get fit quick, and better be worth the £20m spent to bring him to Anfield. Still, Liverpool got back on track tonight, with a 4-0 win at home to Stoke, and a goal from Glen Johnson-which will surely please Liverpool fans greatly-given that many (like me) do not believe he was bought for his defensive qualities. Stories of Rafa being left with £1.5m to spend and subsequently storming out of the club have been doing the rounds today-tonight's win was extremely timely.

Signs for Portsmouth appear ominous-no end to the ownership saga in sight, and with the transfer deadline fast approaching, they could find themselves in dire straits by the time they can strengthen their squad. Narrow and perhaps unfortunate losses at home to Fulham and away to Birmingham also wouldn't fill me with confidence about their prospects, especially when looking at the results to date of the 3 promoted teams, who may be able to put up more of a fight than I first imagined.

If Arsenal produce many more performances like last Sunday's 6-1 thrashing of Everton, then I guess I will have to revise my opinion of them (as will many other 'experts'). When things click for this team, they are capable of great things. I'll wait a few more games before I see if they have improved on last season. For Everton, things are bad. Shipping 6 goals on opening day in front of your home fans is a sign that things can only get better, right? Maybe not. In what is turning into an increasingly ugly saga, wantaway Jolean Lescott was left out of their squad for a Europa League game-with David Moyes leaving us in doubt as to why. Surley Everton should just take the money offered by Man City and spend a (relatively) small portion of it on a Steven Taylor, Matthew Upson, Michael Turner, or, perhaps even extract old Goodison favourite Richard Dunne from City in a cash plus player deal. Lescott is good, but Everton have 2 pretty good centre halves as it stands (when Jagielka returns from injury), and there is a danger that this episode could continue to destabilise a club that will be under a lot of pressure from others for their top 6 place (a feat they have managed in 4 of the last 5 years).

And so to Chelsea. Things did not look great for much of the afternoon against Hull-and indeed look worse when compared to Tottenham's result against the same team, but, winning doesn't have to be pretty I guess. Still, the lack of fluidity and dynamism that has dogged Chelsea for the past few seasons was very much evident against Hull. However, things improved markedly aginst Sunderland, even Steve Bruce was quick to give Chelsea plaudits for an impressive display. Time will tell if Carlo's diamond is a real gem, and also whether Deco's sparkling display was nothing more than a flash in the pan.

Thursday 13 August 2009

Premier League Preview 2009/10

Well here we go again, another season of the 'World's Best League'. That claim is even more tenuous this season, given Barcelona's mastery in the Champions League last year, and the rebirth of the Galactico era in Madrid. Of course, the departure of the 'World's Best Player' to Madrid should dampen the enthusiasm of Anglo-Saxon commentators in assigning such a lofty title to the English Premier League.

10 or 15 years ago, the offseason promised plenty of new signings from overseas, some famous, some less so, but there was generally an air of expectation/excitement (on my part) when the Premier League kicked off. This year, through a combination of credit crunch and maybe a degree of saturation (this is an interesting article on the BEEB on player nationalities) of foreign players, there have been less notable signings from overseas than in previous years. Thomas Vermaelen, Alberto Aquilani, Yuri Zhirkov are probably the biggest sigings this summer, but don't really compare with the Dennis Bergkamps, Gianfranco Zolas, Fernando Torres' or indeed Elanos of bygone and recent years. Still, other than the rumours surrounding David Villa and Franck Ribery, there wasn't much else happening this summer. We can only hope that among the likes of Christian Benitez and Nikola Kalinic we will find some unexpected entertainment.

Manchester City were probably the biggest movers and shakers this summer-but all their major signings were from English based players. Arsenal seemed more than happy to take their generous offers for Kolo Toure (who I think could discover his form again) and Emmanuel Adebayor (who reminds me a lot of Didier Drogba-for all the right and wrong reasons); Villa were likely to lose Gareth Barry anyway (and Rafa just couldn't hide his annoyance at being outbid by the Shiekh); and it's hard to know how Fergie really feels at losing Carlos Tevez to his crosstown 'rivals', but he has put up a good front at making us feel like he could care less. How Mark Hughes melds all of these talented but moody individuals into a team remains to be seen-remember-as well as Tevez and Adebayor, he also has Craig Bellamy and Robinho on his books. The addition of Jolean Lescott or another top defender will strengthen his hand, but to me City remain a team that lack a clear leader. Still, it will be an interesting season at the City of Manchester, although it is their away form (2 wins on the road last season) that could determine their bid for Champions League football.

Arsenal almost look like they have given up. Selling Adebayor and Toure to City made them a pretty penny, but strengthen a team that will surely be one of their main rivals for a Champions League spot. I know nothing of Thomas Vermaelen, but judging by the fee, he will surely be decent-Arsenal aren't renowned for splashing out on defenders. The failure to add a bit of steel in midfield (rumours of a move to bring Patrick Vieira back aside) will surely count against them. As will relying on their collection of talented forwards to remain fit and score the goals that their attractive football often fails to provide. Adebayor scored 24 goals in 2008, but only 10 in the last campaign, so he may not be missed as much as one would imagine. I see Arsenal holding on to 4th place, a full season of Andrei Arshavin promises much, but they still lack some of the key ingredients for further Premiership success.

Liverpool have been picked by quite a few pundits to finally win the Premier League this year, whereas the bookies have them as 3rd favourites. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. I just don't see how swapping Alberto Aquilani (who seems to have a poor injury history) for Xabi Alonso improves their team, and I certainly don't rate Glen Johnson as a defender. So, it really comes down to Steven Gerrard and Fernando Alonso continually providing the goals and all round excellence that took Liverpool to 2nd last season. While I have no doubt that both players will be as good as they were last season, and perhaps better than last season in Torres' case, I feel that there is not enough quality in the squad to sustain a title challenge over the full season.

Like Liverpool, Manchester United don't seem to have the pieces to improve on last season. Indeed, the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez is likely to significantly weaken their hand-I don't feel that Antonio Valencia and Micheal Owen will be as good as the departed, but maybe they just need to be good enough to get United over the line again. If they don't score as many goals, it may not matter, given the excellence of their defence last season, and you can be sure that Wayne Rooney will relish the chance to play a more pivital role than was the case when Ronaldo and Tevez had to be accommodated.

Chelsea are favourites with the bookmakers-as much due to the fact that Mancheseter United have lost players and Liverpool don't seem to have improved their squad. After just watching them eke out a 2-1 win over Hull City at home, I don't see much change in their style of play from last season. I guess I still fancy them overall-but they can't afford games like today-where they created 30 chances but could only take 2 of them. They have a decent squad, but players like Terry, Lampard and Essien are key-and at least one of Drogba and Anelka must hit form in patches for them to be more successful than last year. Injuries to key men cost them last year, this year the African Cup of Nations could derail their challenge, when Essien, Drogba and Kalou will definitely be absent, and there is a strong chance Mikel could be on duty in Angola as well. Chelsea can probably live without Mikel and Kalou, but it will be very difficult to compensate for the absence of Essien and Drogba. I've written more about Chelsea's prospects here.

So, Chelsea 1st, Liverpool 2nd, Man Utd 3rd is my top 3, with Arsenal retaining 4th place.

As to the rest, the 3 promoted teams, plus Portsmouth and Hull, will struggle and 3 from these 5 will go down. It will be interesting to see how last year's overachievers (Stoke and Fulham) do this year, as will watching the development of Gianfarnco Zola as a manager at West Ham United. Outside of that, there's not much to say about the other Premier League teams for now. Let's hope that the next 40 or so weekends give me plenty to write about.

Forward thinking-Premier League Team of the season 2009/10

Goalkeeper Shay Given (Man City) I fancy Shay to get plenty of chances to showcase his talents for Man City-outside the Top 4, Tim Howard could be the best of the rest.

Right Back
Bacary Sagna (Arsenal). If it wasn't for injury last year, he was probably the best right back in the premiership. One of Wegner's better 'unknowns'.

Left Back Ashley Cole (Chelsea) I fancy Cashley to finally start to fully deliver for Chelsea-there were signs of this last year, but Evra's form was too good to ignore.

Centre Back Nemanja Vidic (Man Utd). A shaky end to the season nothwithstanding, there are few better.

Centre Back Jolean Lescott (Everton) He might not be on Merseyside when the season starts, and if he does end up at the City of Manchester Stadium, all bets are off.

Midfield Steven Gerrard (Liverpool) Now that the court case has been settled, and as Liverpool have done little or nothing in the transfer market this summer, expect Gerrard to have to contribute handsomely again this season.

Midfield Michael Essien (Chelsea) Were it not for so much time lost to injury, and the sentimental nonsense that saw Ryan Giggs make the team last year, then Essien should have been named to this team-he will be key to Chelsea's title challenge on 2009/10.

Midfield Cesc Fabregas (Arsenal) Another who lost too much time last year, but on his day, he is probably the most complete player in the Premiership.

Forward Andrei Arshavin (Arsenal) Only a cameo at the end of last season, but there's no doubting his talent.

Forward Fernando Torres (Liverpool) Assuming he stays free from injury, I think it's safe to give Fernando the number 9 shirt.

Forward Michael Owen (Man Utd) Not since Ruud van Nistlerooy left have Man Utd had such an out-and-out goalscorer. Someone will have to fill the void left by Ronaldo in the goalscoring stakes, Owne should get plenty of chances to do just that.

Player of the Year Fernando Torres
Young Player of the Year Stephen Ireland (Man City)-who will be 23 (and thus qualify as 'young player' for 2009/10).

I'll revisit this topic again in April and see how wrong I turn out to be in practice.

Tuesday 11 August 2009

Benvenuto, Carlo

It's hard to believe that Chelsea allowed Guus Hiddink to walk at the end of last season. The guy steadied what could have been a sinking ship at Stamford Bridge, was hugely popular with the fans, and was getting much more out of hitherto underachieving expensive players (e.g. Malouda) than either Mr. Grant or Mr. Scolari. A pretty tough act to follow-even if his only silverware was the quickly depreciating reward of the FA Cup. But, Carlo Ancelotti would appear to fit the bill-massive international reputation, appears popular with his players, and a dry wit that has thus far gone down well with the British media.

But, I have the say that I am not convinced (ok, Chelsea haven't kicked a ball on a competitive or friendly match under his management) by the droll Italian. In 7 seasons at AC Milan, he won 1 Serie A title (Juventus were stripped of their titles 04/05 and 05/06, Milan were runners-up in both seasons), and his overall win percentage was just under 57% (compared to Jose's Chelsea record of 70%, Avram Grant's record of just under 67%, and Guus' record of 71%)-a statistic that looks suspiciously like Uzbek based Mr Scolari's record in his (brief) tenure at the Bridge. In addition, he failed to win anything in his 2 seasons at Juventus, finishing league runner-up twice (something Chelsea have become used to in the past few seasons) Now, this is a bit of an 'American' approach to assessing performance, but it's not a bad starting point.

What I didn't mention above of course is that Carlo has won 2 Champions League titles, and arguably should have won a third in his time with Milan (even Liverpool fans would agree?)-and it's pretty obvious what is Chelsea's primary ambition these days. So it certainly looks like it's his European pedigree is what has attracted him to whoever it is calls the shots on these matters on the Fulham Road.

The pre-season was successful (in the sense that Chelsea were unbeaten and players didn't suffer any serious injuries), but didn't answer many questions.

For example, will Chelsea play more adventurous/attacking football? Having only seen Sunday's Community Shield, I didn't notice any great difference in Chelsea's approach, and I don't recall any of Ancelotti's previous teams playing especially 'sexy' football. Note that I don't particularly long for more advanture and attacking just for the sake of more entertainment-but I do believe it is necessary to take the next step in Europe (a Champions League victory), and to wrest control of the Premiership from Manchester United. Plus, you have to admit that Chelsea have been far more successful in some of the battles with Liverpool when 'going for it' from the word go as opposed to adopting a policy of conservatism and containment. Still, it is too early to say what the weekly approach will be, and I am happy enough to reserve judgement on that score for now. The results will, hopefully, speak for themselves.

Will Ancelotti be able to motivate malcontents (Drogba), underachievers (Anelka) and underperformers (Ballack, Mikel, Malouda...) to greater heights than Scolari or even Avram Grant managed. That seemed to be Hiddink's key strength-he had the same players as those available to his short-tenured predecessors, but seemed to get more out of them. Malouda especially appeared revitalised, and his form in the 2nd half of the season was outstanding (there was a story about how issues with his wisdom teeth may have affected him earlier in the season), and, to be honest, I wonder about the decision to sign Zhirkov in light of Malouda's recent excellence, but than who knows who made that call.

Is Ancelotti happy with the players he has, or does he need his 'own man', specifically, Andrea Pirlo? The continuing rumnours about Pirlo appear to have died down after Pirlo's comments last weekend. I'm not too upset by this-I have great time for Pirlo as a player, but don't see his style translating well to the demands of the Premiership. This report worried me somewhat, if Carlo cannot accomodate Essien, prefarably in a central role, then I fear I will have little time for the guy. The fact that his role appears to be on the right side of a midfield diamond doesn't impress me-witness the one-sided attacking approach employed against Man Utd on Sunday-surely Carlo should be looking for a more orthodox right-sided player if he is to deploy the diamond on a regular basis? I haven't really seen anyone mentioned in transfer gossip who fits the bill. Breaking news-Roma have apparently turned down a bid from Chelsea for Daniele De Rossi-now that's a midfield player I would like to see Chelsea sign. You would also like to think that Joe Cole could feature in a right midfield role at some stage this season as well.

And so, as Chelsea prepare to kick-off against Hull at lunchtime on Saturday, as gentle an introduction as you can get to the Premier League as a new manager I guess, there is much to look forward to for Chelsea fans this season, not least the prospect of a double Champions League winner taking the reins at Stamford Bridge. Let's Chelsea can add to his trophy tally.

Sound & Vision (warning-may contain traces of sarcasm)

'Lawro' gives his Premier League verdicts (in video!) here. Some wonderful insights-as always.

Arsenal
Arsenal miss the likes of.........even Ray Parlour

Really? The Romford Pele? I note that all the players that Lawro mentioned were English.

Birmingham
I know nothing about Benitez. Isn't that your job? You're nearly worse than John Giles in that respect.

Chelsea
2 players short And who might they be? Any idea what position you see them playing?

Fulham
Andy Johnson will score goals again. 7 goals in 31 appearances last year. Prolific.

Sunderland
On Darren Bent: The more you play him, the more goals he'll score. Sounds reasonable.

Wolves
Promoted teams-it's all about winning games
. Indeed.

Thursday 6 August 2009

A Tale of Two Cities

Tonight in New York, the Boston Red Sox meet the New York Yankees in the ninth game of eighteen scheduled for this season. As it stands, Boston leads the season series 8-0, yet find themselves two and a half games behind New York in the American League East standings. This series of games may or may not have much bearing on the rest of the season, but it comes at an interesting time.

The biggest news of recent weeks was the disclosure (in the New York Times) that beloved Boston slugger David 'Big Papi' Ortiz tested positive for PEDs back in 2003 (of course former Sox hero Manny Ramirez was also on the infamous list, but that didn't really tell us anything we didn't already know). The Yankee faithful haven't really had 'good' reason to boo Boston players since Pedro 'Daddy' Martinez left town, but you can be sure that Papi will be made feel welcome in the Bronx tonight. Not that it should affect his 'form' much-Ortiz started the season horribly, finally started to hit, but has not looked too good since the revelations about 2003 surfaced (his home run in Baltimore as the story was breaking aside). Somewhat overshadowed by all of this has been the acquisition of Victor Martinez from Cleveland at the July 31 trade deadline. He's made a nice start to his Boston career-and his presence in the line-up for this series is vital, given the form of Ortiz, and the fact that the (slumping) Jason Bay will be absent for at least 2 of the games.

Aside from the patchy hitting, the state of Boston's pitching is also cause for concern at the moment. At the start of the season, the Red Sox thought they had 6 good starters-they now have around two-and-a-half. Recent efforts to acquire the likes of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez suggest that the Sox brains trust is worried-all of these guys are staff aces, not number 4/5 guys to fill out your rotation-perhaps they are writing off Dicey-K's season (and Sox career?), or know more about Tim Wakefield's health than the media. The Red Sox bullpen looked lights out, but now Justin Masterson is gone (and he had struggled mightily against lefties), there have been some meltdowns (a recent 10 run lead given back to the Orioles; Daniel Bard's wild inning in Tampa), and, even though his record doesn't show it, Jonathan Papelbon is often making the 9th inning mighty interesting.

Meanwhile, the Yankees pitching, Sergio Mitre aside (who misses his turn in this series) has looked pretty good. AJ Burnett was shelled last time out in Chicago, but has been excellent at Yankee Stadium. His Friday night duel with former Marlins team-mate Beckett is the match up of the series. The Yankees will hope to get strong outings from all their starters-their bullpen is still not great (until you get to their closer, who has had his issues with Boston in recent times), and, and the money invested in Burnett and CC Sabathia was undoubtedly offered with games against the Red Sox in mind. Add the pitching performance to a line-up that is begun to hit form, and things are certainly looking up for the men in pinstripes. While they don't need to win this series, you get the feeling that they expect to-if they don't start winning against the Red Sox sooner or later, you wouldn't feel too comfortable about their odds of doing so in a play-off series!

My call-bad and all as things are, the Sox should be able to split this 4 game series-assuming they are able to give Beckett and Lester enough run support (and assuming said pitchers are at the top of their game, which has been the case for Beckett lately, Lester, not so much). Anything they get from Smoltz and Buchholz is a bonus to be honest-the most I could ask to these guys is that they both make it through 6+ innings and save the bullpen. The long ball could be key-the new Yankee Stadium has given up more home runs than any other park this season (161 so far)-tonight would be a good night for Boston bats to come alive.