So on Sunday, the Andre Vilas Boas (I’m going to take liberties and refer to him as ‘AvB’ from here on) era begins in earnest at Stoke. Other than the absent Michael Essien, I expect it to be as you were for Chelsea under Carlo Ancelotti. After all, none of the 3 summer signings are expected to feature and line-ups used in pre-season suggests that the same players will be deployed in the same positions as they were last season. All of which leads me to believe that AvB really believes his own hype.
To be fair, both Josh McEachran and Danny Sturridge have seen game time in pre-season. McEachran saw very limited action under Ancelotti and while Sturridge did make a few appearances, he was of course loaned out after the acquisition of Fernando Torres and scored goals for fun at Bolton while Torres drew blanks. Sturridge is suspended to start the season, so I guess we’ll have to wait a while to see if he figures in AvB’s plans.
I’ll admit to seeing little of AvB in action, except for last season’s Europa League final, which I was able to attend in person. His Porto side were clearly technically superior to Braga and contained all the star power, yet the manner of their victory was far from convincing and the style of play most unsatisfactory for a neutral like me. Much of it reminded me of watching Chelsea under the doleful Italian! Of course I know of the statistics from Porto’s season – all the goals scored – but I remember watching Chelsea 6 goals a game at the start of last season, but at the same time being largely unimpressed with the style of Chelsea’s play. Yes of course results are everything, but ultimately Chelsea’s season was not defined by how they fared against West Brom and Wigan. It came down to performances against the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United, where they lacked the ideas and creativity to break down higher quality opposition.
Chelsea’s problems seemed to me to stem from 3 areas last season – an aging squad, a lack of creativity, players who didn’t respond to the manager, or a manger who lost his appetite for the game. The squad issue has only been partially addressed – how often Romeu or Lukaku actually play remains to be seen (Lukaku could very well be loaned out), the lack of creativity could be solved by AvB, but I still think he needs to sign someone like Modric if things are to change dramatically from last season. As to whether the players will respond to him or not, that will be interesting – sure Porto had some stars, but no one in the league of Drogba, Torres, Cole, Lampard or Terry. Can AvB’s methodical approach inspire them to heights they failed to reach last season? Let’s assume that he still has an appetite for the game!
Anyway, I am being harsh – despite all that has been written, the guy has not managed a game that matters at Chelsea at yet. So he needs time. Will his patron give him time? Judging by the signings Chelsea have made this summer, it appears that they are trying to build for the future rather than sign quick fixes. Strange, given the moves they made in the last transfer window, but maybe Financial Fair Play is weighing on their mind? He’s a young manager, he’s trained under some of the best, including the original ‘Special One’, he’s won trophies, and he’s likely to be just a big a hit with the media as Ancelotti (who it seemed could do no wrong in the eyes of most scribes). I’m happy to give him time – I just hope his employer feels the same way.
Sunday 14 August 2011
Saturday 13 August 2011
Our First Podcast! The Guff Report Premier League Preview 2011-12
Here it is!
Guff Report Premier League Preview
All comments welcome. Please share with others if you think it's worth it.
Guff Report Premier League Preview
All comments welcome. Please share with others if you think it's worth it.
Thursday 11 August 2011
Premier League Preview 2011/12
Arsenal
You really have to question the competence of the decision-makers at Arsenal if the stories about the Juan Mata failed bid are true. Fabergas looks like he’s gone and Nasri may not be far behind. Sure there will be funds, but with less than 3 weeks left in the transfer window, the pressure will be on to bring in big name replacements. Or so you would think – the only name being floated around at the moment seems to be Scott Dann. Gervinho will probably be a success, Oxlade-Chamberlain has not played at a level higher than League 1 until now, so we’ll have to wait and see how he steps up in the Premier League. This could be the the season where Arsenal drop out of the Top 4. I’m sure their fans are frustrated, heck, they sort of frustrate me at times as well.
Aston Villa
What is the plan at Villa? Spending big money on Darren Bent last season seemed to signal ambition, but then selling his 2 putative providers in chief seems contradictory, although denying Ashley Young a move to Manchester United was probably going to be a difficult position to maintain in the short-term, while Liverpool’s offer for Stewart Downing appears to represent good business for Villa, especially when they can turn around and buy Charles N’Zogbia for half the money. Fans patience will be very thin this season, especially in light of the decision to appoint the man who has just overseen the relegation of their fiercest rivals.
Blackburn Rovers
David Goodwillie? This is what the Venky’s money is bringing to Blackburn? Where’s Kaka et al? Losing Phil Jones will hurt, and losing Chris Samba could be fatal. No better than mid table, and possible relegation contenders, but the fact that there are probably poorer teams out there mean that they might hang on.
Bolton
A quiet enough summer at the Reebok, where keeping Gary Cahill and getting Stuart Holden back from injury could go a long way towards defining their season. They haven’t had the best of luck so far this summer – Tyrone Mears and the Korean Lee Chung-Yong both look like missing significant time due to both suffering broken legs in pre-season. A team that will struggle to break into the Top 8, but should find it relatively comfortable to remain in mid table.
Chelsea
Is essentially the same squad that looked tired and unimaginative last season really the one to do better this season? Is Fernando Torres really finished or just not getting the kind of service on which he thrives? How much time will Andre Villas-Boas be given to win a Premier League and Champions League title? So many questions that look like taking a while to answer. Chelsea’s signings so far this summer almost hint at building for the future – in contrast with the big money signings of David Luiz and Torres in January which seemed to suggest a desire to win big, quickly. As things stand, I don’t see them overhauling Man Utd this season, and Man City are only going to get stronger.
Everton
Moving forward by standing still? It’s hard to see this team achieving more than say a Europa League or Cup Final berth – some good players for sure, but the squad is thin, especially up front, where Louis Saha is dangerous when fit, but alas that is never a given. Holding on to Baines, Jagielka, Fellani and Arteta is perhaps a more valuable coup than any signings David Moyes could hope to make.
Fulham
I guess the position taken over Mark Hughes shows that disloyalty won’t be tolerated, which is fine in one sense, but it also smacks to me of cutting off your nose to spite your face in another. Hughes seemed like a decent manager - although Martin Jol could turn out to be a decent replacement. Fulham have a pretty solid defence anchored by Hangelaand and Schwarzer, and some decent striking options in attack and from deeper. Assuming the players take to Jol relatively quickly, they could have a relatively comfortable season, but the Europa League via the Fair Play table is probably likely to be the zenith of their ambitions again.
Liverpool
Big spenders but value for money doesn’t seem to be a concern. The prices paid for Henderson and Downing seem inflated, but if they deliver, then no-one will care. Of the 2, Downing looks like he will be a good addition, but the jury could be out on Henderson for a long time yet. He was largely anonymous in the European U-21 Championships, but that was admittedly as a part of a pretty poor England team. What could be more relevant to Liverpool’s chances this season is how Suarez and Carroll perform given that they now have a full season to show their worth. Charlie Adam could also represent good value, but how Liverpool accommodate him and Meireles (and indeed Gerrard when he comes back) will be interesting. If nothing else, Dalglish has strengthened his squad, but keeping expectations dampened will be a challenge.
Manchester City
Sergio Aguero may be a very good player, but will he be as effective in the Premier League as Carlos Tevez? I suspect not. City however may not be denied for long – the squad is full of quality players at just about every position, but their style of play is far from that of champions. I would question the wisdom of signing Gael Clichy, over Leighton Baines, or in persevering with Jerome Boateng for that matter. There are still questions in attack as well, namely whether or not Mario Balotelli has anywhere near enough maturity to be trusted, or whether Edin Dzeko has the requisite quality. The Tevez situation is far from resolved either – it struck me last week that a swap between City and Inter involving the mercurial family man and Wesley Sneijder would make sense for City on so many levels – they rid themselves of a potential distraction while acquiring a quality player that their crosstown rivals appear to covet. This sort of move would go a long way to making City more than just noisy neighbours.
Manchester United
Whether David de Gea will be able to seamlessly fill the massive void left by the departure of Edwin van der Saar or whether Phil Jones represents an upgrade over John O’Shea in the short-term remains to be seen, as does the issue of the quality of central midfield, especially in light of Paul Scholes’ retirement, but the reality is that this squad is more than good enough to retain its title when you survey the Premier League landscape as it is presently configured. What Ryan Giggs has left to offer is a huge question, but the acquisition of Ashley Young, along with the talents of Nani and the return from loan spells of Cleverly and Wellbeck means that there are plenty of options available to take up the slack should age and other matters begin to impact Giggs’ form. The acquisition of Sneijder may not be what they need to beat Barcelona on the European stage, but it would surely but them over the top yet again in their domestic league. As usual, Man Utd. drive on while their domestic rivals dawdle.
Newcastle United
Follow their implosion live on Twitter! Another team that is in serious danger of falling into a relegation fight. Mike Ashley did very well from the sale of Andy Carroll, but his stance on Joey Barton signals his true intent for this proud club. I would question the decision to sell Kevin Nolan as well, but maybe it says something for his motivation that he was happy to move to a Championship club (what price that he will be back in the EPL next season?). Expect them to cash in on Jose Enrique before the transfer window closes. I don’t know enough (read: anything) about their 3 French signings to say what they will contribute, but Demba Ba on a free could prove to be shrewd business, and Hatem Ben Arfa should be fit and raring to go, so maybe it’s not all doom and gloom.
Norwich City
Based on the excellent writing of the Swiss Ramble, Norwich appear to be the best run of the 3 promoted teams and while they lack star power, they have a sustainable strategy, which seems to assume that they will be relegated this season, but have the resources to come straight back up and then fight to stay there. Sensible stuff, but based on what I think may happen at QPR and the fact that they finished so far ahead of Swansea last season makes me think that Norwich have the best chance of the 3 to stay up. Early form will be crucial.
Queens Park Rangers
Possibly one of the richest clubs in the league, but other than the fact that they have just hiked ticket prices, you’d hardly know it. Any signings made have been free (at least they have Premier League experience) and Neil Warnock is one of the favourites to get the sack. Not quite a soap opera of Newcastle type proportions, but it could get there by the end of the season. In Taarabt, they have a player I’m see many are intrigued to see on the Premier League stage (which is graced previously very briefly with Spurs). Having said that, PSG are reportedly interested and aren’t afraid to splash the cash. If he leaves, I will assume that they are doomed if the owners reluctance to spend continues.
Stoke City
Ones to watch? Very steady performers under Tony Pulis and very solid at home. Their style is not to everyone’s liking, but it is effective. Woodgate and Upson are high risk signings, and how can Tony contemplate leaving out goal machine Robert Huth from his back 4! Landing Scott Parker would be a coup, and outside of last season’s Top 4 plus Spurs and Liverpool, Stoke could be the team to break into the Europa League places ahead of more established names. Of course, they play in this season’s EL thanks to their runners up spot in last season’s FA Cup so how they handle the demands of Europe could have a bearing on their PL form.
Sunderland
Selling Darren Bent and buying Asamoah Gyan and then selling Jordan Henderson and buying Craig Gardner for around half the money (or less) received and Seb Larsson for nothing looks like pretty good business to me. How John O’Shea and Wes Brown fare away from Old Trafford, where they served as valuable squad players will be interesting, especially when Nicky Butt and Phil Neville performed similar roles for Man Utd but hardly distinguished themselves elsewhere. Steve Bruce appears to have the resources to survive, and perhaps challenge for a Europa League spot, but a long run of dreadful results similar to last season cannot be repeated.
Swansea City
Like the other team in white (Bolton), I’ll confess that not much about Swansea in the news has caught my eye this summer. Scott Sinclair looks a good player – someone that Chelsea could have done well to persevere with, but all indications are that they will be relegation candidates unless they can pull a few surprises early on.
Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs are making all the right noises on the Modric issue, but they will look like fools if he does end up leaving. What they can expect from a player who has made public his desire to leave but has yet to formally request a move is a moot point. Whether or not Gareth Bale can continue his Footballer of the Year ‘form’ (which was fleeting enough to be honest!) and who is deployed up front are key questions. Even if Modric leaves, there is quality there to compensate – Sandro showed great development last season and Kyle Walker’s form for Aston Villa and England was very encouraging (if you’re a Spurs fan). Given Liverpool’s signings and Manchester City’s continued development, it seems unlikely that Spurs are good enough for the Champions League as things stand, less so if they lose Modric and fail to address questions up front.
West Bromwich Albion
Based on past history, would appear to be a leading candidate for relegation, but if they continue the form they showed under Roy Hodgson last season, they could survive with some degree of comfort, especially if Peter Odemwingie continues his good goalscoring form. Signings up until now weren’t very inspiring, but this week’s acquisition of Shane Long could be a good buy.
Wigan Athletic
The loss of N’Zogbia and Cleverly will hurt, but keeping Rodellega will help in their fight to stave off relegation. The continued development of McCarthy will be of interest to Irish fans, but how much we see of him in a green jersey is a worry at this stage. Roberto Martinez tries to play the game the right way, but perhaps a touch more pragmatism will be necessary this season.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Like Martinez at Wigan, Mick McCarthy picks players and uses a system that yields football that is easy on the eye. Some great results last season, and they’ve managed to retain the likes of Kevin Doyle, who, if fit, could be the key to their survival this season. In addition, Jamie O’Hara and Roger Johnson add to the quality of the team. It’s hard to see them repeating wins over Chelsea and Liverpool, so beating their peers will likely go a long way to determining their final league position. They may struggle against well organised and physical teams.
Top 3
1. Man Utd.
2. Chelsea
3. Man City
Bottom 3
18. Wigan
19. QPR
20. Swansea
You really have to question the competence of the decision-makers at Arsenal if the stories about the Juan Mata failed bid are true. Fabergas looks like he’s gone and Nasri may not be far behind. Sure there will be funds, but with less than 3 weeks left in the transfer window, the pressure will be on to bring in big name replacements. Or so you would think – the only name being floated around at the moment seems to be Scott Dann. Gervinho will probably be a success, Oxlade-Chamberlain has not played at a level higher than League 1 until now, so we’ll have to wait and see how he steps up in the Premier League. This could be the the season where Arsenal drop out of the Top 4. I’m sure their fans are frustrated, heck, they sort of frustrate me at times as well.
Aston Villa
What is the plan at Villa? Spending big money on Darren Bent last season seemed to signal ambition, but then selling his 2 putative providers in chief seems contradictory, although denying Ashley Young a move to Manchester United was probably going to be a difficult position to maintain in the short-term, while Liverpool’s offer for Stewart Downing appears to represent good business for Villa, especially when they can turn around and buy Charles N’Zogbia for half the money. Fans patience will be very thin this season, especially in light of the decision to appoint the man who has just overseen the relegation of their fiercest rivals.
Blackburn Rovers
David Goodwillie? This is what the Venky’s money is bringing to Blackburn? Where’s Kaka et al? Losing Phil Jones will hurt, and losing Chris Samba could be fatal. No better than mid table, and possible relegation contenders, but the fact that there are probably poorer teams out there mean that they might hang on.
Bolton
A quiet enough summer at the Reebok, where keeping Gary Cahill and getting Stuart Holden back from injury could go a long way towards defining their season. They haven’t had the best of luck so far this summer – Tyrone Mears and the Korean Lee Chung-Yong both look like missing significant time due to both suffering broken legs in pre-season. A team that will struggle to break into the Top 8, but should find it relatively comfortable to remain in mid table.
Chelsea
Is essentially the same squad that looked tired and unimaginative last season really the one to do better this season? Is Fernando Torres really finished or just not getting the kind of service on which he thrives? How much time will Andre Villas-Boas be given to win a Premier League and Champions League title? So many questions that look like taking a while to answer. Chelsea’s signings so far this summer almost hint at building for the future – in contrast with the big money signings of David Luiz and Torres in January which seemed to suggest a desire to win big, quickly. As things stand, I don’t see them overhauling Man Utd this season, and Man City are only going to get stronger.
Everton
Moving forward by standing still? It’s hard to see this team achieving more than say a Europa League or Cup Final berth – some good players for sure, but the squad is thin, especially up front, where Louis Saha is dangerous when fit, but alas that is never a given. Holding on to Baines, Jagielka, Fellani and Arteta is perhaps a more valuable coup than any signings David Moyes could hope to make.
Fulham
I guess the position taken over Mark Hughes shows that disloyalty won’t be tolerated, which is fine in one sense, but it also smacks to me of cutting off your nose to spite your face in another. Hughes seemed like a decent manager - although Martin Jol could turn out to be a decent replacement. Fulham have a pretty solid defence anchored by Hangelaand and Schwarzer, and some decent striking options in attack and from deeper. Assuming the players take to Jol relatively quickly, they could have a relatively comfortable season, but the Europa League via the Fair Play table is probably likely to be the zenith of their ambitions again.
Liverpool
Big spenders but value for money doesn’t seem to be a concern. The prices paid for Henderson and Downing seem inflated, but if they deliver, then no-one will care. Of the 2, Downing looks like he will be a good addition, but the jury could be out on Henderson for a long time yet. He was largely anonymous in the European U-21 Championships, but that was admittedly as a part of a pretty poor England team. What could be more relevant to Liverpool’s chances this season is how Suarez and Carroll perform given that they now have a full season to show their worth. Charlie Adam could also represent good value, but how Liverpool accommodate him and Meireles (and indeed Gerrard when he comes back) will be interesting. If nothing else, Dalglish has strengthened his squad, but keeping expectations dampened will be a challenge.
Manchester City
Sergio Aguero may be a very good player, but will he be as effective in the Premier League as Carlos Tevez? I suspect not. City however may not be denied for long – the squad is full of quality players at just about every position, but their style of play is far from that of champions. I would question the wisdom of signing Gael Clichy, over Leighton Baines, or in persevering with Jerome Boateng for that matter. There are still questions in attack as well, namely whether or not Mario Balotelli has anywhere near enough maturity to be trusted, or whether Edin Dzeko has the requisite quality. The Tevez situation is far from resolved either – it struck me last week that a swap between City and Inter involving the mercurial family man and Wesley Sneijder would make sense for City on so many levels – they rid themselves of a potential distraction while acquiring a quality player that their crosstown rivals appear to covet. This sort of move would go a long way to making City more than just noisy neighbours.
Manchester United
Whether David de Gea will be able to seamlessly fill the massive void left by the departure of Edwin van der Saar or whether Phil Jones represents an upgrade over John O’Shea in the short-term remains to be seen, as does the issue of the quality of central midfield, especially in light of Paul Scholes’ retirement, but the reality is that this squad is more than good enough to retain its title when you survey the Premier League landscape as it is presently configured. What Ryan Giggs has left to offer is a huge question, but the acquisition of Ashley Young, along with the talents of Nani and the return from loan spells of Cleverly and Wellbeck means that there are plenty of options available to take up the slack should age and other matters begin to impact Giggs’ form. The acquisition of Sneijder may not be what they need to beat Barcelona on the European stage, but it would surely but them over the top yet again in their domestic league. As usual, Man Utd. drive on while their domestic rivals dawdle.
Newcastle United
Follow their implosion live on Twitter! Another team that is in serious danger of falling into a relegation fight. Mike Ashley did very well from the sale of Andy Carroll, but his stance on Joey Barton signals his true intent for this proud club. I would question the decision to sell Kevin Nolan as well, but maybe it says something for his motivation that he was happy to move to a Championship club (what price that he will be back in the EPL next season?). Expect them to cash in on Jose Enrique before the transfer window closes. I don’t know enough (read: anything) about their 3 French signings to say what they will contribute, but Demba Ba on a free could prove to be shrewd business, and Hatem Ben Arfa should be fit and raring to go, so maybe it’s not all doom and gloom.
Norwich City
Based on the excellent writing of the Swiss Ramble, Norwich appear to be the best run of the 3 promoted teams and while they lack star power, they have a sustainable strategy, which seems to assume that they will be relegated this season, but have the resources to come straight back up and then fight to stay there. Sensible stuff, but based on what I think may happen at QPR and the fact that they finished so far ahead of Swansea last season makes me think that Norwich have the best chance of the 3 to stay up. Early form will be crucial.
Queens Park Rangers
Possibly one of the richest clubs in the league, but other than the fact that they have just hiked ticket prices, you’d hardly know it. Any signings made have been free (at least they have Premier League experience) and Neil Warnock is one of the favourites to get the sack. Not quite a soap opera of Newcastle type proportions, but it could get there by the end of the season. In Taarabt, they have a player I’m see many are intrigued to see on the Premier League stage (which is graced previously very briefly with Spurs). Having said that, PSG are reportedly interested and aren’t afraid to splash the cash. If he leaves, I will assume that they are doomed if the owners reluctance to spend continues.
Stoke City
Ones to watch? Very steady performers under Tony Pulis and very solid at home. Their style is not to everyone’s liking, but it is effective. Woodgate and Upson are high risk signings, and how can Tony contemplate leaving out goal machine Robert Huth from his back 4! Landing Scott Parker would be a coup, and outside of last season’s Top 4 plus Spurs and Liverpool, Stoke could be the team to break into the Europa League places ahead of more established names. Of course, they play in this season’s EL thanks to their runners up spot in last season’s FA Cup so how they handle the demands of Europe could have a bearing on their PL form.
Sunderland
Selling Darren Bent and buying Asamoah Gyan and then selling Jordan Henderson and buying Craig Gardner for around half the money (or less) received and Seb Larsson for nothing looks like pretty good business to me. How John O’Shea and Wes Brown fare away from Old Trafford, where they served as valuable squad players will be interesting, especially when Nicky Butt and Phil Neville performed similar roles for Man Utd but hardly distinguished themselves elsewhere. Steve Bruce appears to have the resources to survive, and perhaps challenge for a Europa League spot, but a long run of dreadful results similar to last season cannot be repeated.
Swansea City
Like the other team in white (Bolton), I’ll confess that not much about Swansea in the news has caught my eye this summer. Scott Sinclair looks a good player – someone that Chelsea could have done well to persevere with, but all indications are that they will be relegation candidates unless they can pull a few surprises early on.
Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs are making all the right noises on the Modric issue, but they will look like fools if he does end up leaving. What they can expect from a player who has made public his desire to leave but has yet to formally request a move is a moot point. Whether or not Gareth Bale can continue his Footballer of the Year ‘form’ (which was fleeting enough to be honest!) and who is deployed up front are key questions. Even if Modric leaves, there is quality there to compensate – Sandro showed great development last season and Kyle Walker’s form for Aston Villa and England was very encouraging (if you’re a Spurs fan). Given Liverpool’s signings and Manchester City’s continued development, it seems unlikely that Spurs are good enough for the Champions League as things stand, less so if they lose Modric and fail to address questions up front.
West Bromwich Albion
Based on past history, would appear to be a leading candidate for relegation, but if they continue the form they showed under Roy Hodgson last season, they could survive with some degree of comfort, especially if Peter Odemwingie continues his good goalscoring form. Signings up until now weren’t very inspiring, but this week’s acquisition of Shane Long could be a good buy.
Wigan Athletic
The loss of N’Zogbia and Cleverly will hurt, but keeping Rodellega will help in their fight to stave off relegation. The continued development of McCarthy will be of interest to Irish fans, but how much we see of him in a green jersey is a worry at this stage. Roberto Martinez tries to play the game the right way, but perhaps a touch more pragmatism will be necessary this season.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Like Martinez at Wigan, Mick McCarthy picks players and uses a system that yields football that is easy on the eye. Some great results last season, and they’ve managed to retain the likes of Kevin Doyle, who, if fit, could be the key to their survival this season. In addition, Jamie O’Hara and Roger Johnson add to the quality of the team. It’s hard to see them repeating wins over Chelsea and Liverpool, so beating their peers will likely go a long way to determining their final league position. They may struggle against well organised and physical teams.
Top 3
1. Man Utd.
2. Chelsea
3. Man City
Bottom 3
18. Wigan
19. QPR
20. Swansea
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
