Let’s not kid ourselves-Man Utd need to lose this league before anyone else (Chelsea) can win it. Here was I all set to pretty much wrap up the season and look forward to what might happen in the summer when Arsenal implode in consecutive games and Man Utd stutter away to a toothless Newcastle United. In the meantime, Chelsea took care of business (impressively) against Birmingham and we have a 6 point gap with 5 games to go.
Still, let’s have a look at the fixtures:
Man Utd: 70 pts; +38 gd Chelsea: 64 pts; +34 gd Arsenal: 64 pts; +32 gd
23 April Everton (h) 23 April West Ham (h) 23 April Bolton (a)
1 May Arsenal (a) 30 April Spurs (h) 1 May Man Utd (h)
8 May Chelsea (h) 8 May Man Utd (a) 8 May Stoke (a)
14 May Blackburn (a) 15 May Newcastle (h) 15 May Aston Villa (h)
22 May Blackpool (h) 22 May Everton (a) 22 May Fulham (a)
Let’s start with Arsenal, as despite Monsieur Wenger’s belief that they are still in the race, I am sceptical, especially after recent results-fair enough they are unbeaten in the league since mid-December, when they lost 1-0 at Old Trafford, but there have been too many damaging draws-4-4 v Newcastle after leading 4-0; 3-3 with Spurs after leading 3-1; 0-0 at home v Blackburn and at home v Sunderland. There’s no real shame in drawing 1-1 at home to Liverpool, but it was the manner of the result that raises questions-going ahead deep into injury time, a contender needs to see out the 2 minutes left to seal the win-the defending that led to Liverpool’s penalty equaliser was criminal.
Out of the 5 fixtures remaining, I wouldn’t be surprised if Arsenal fail to win any, although I suspect that Stoke may have other things on their mind a week ahead of the FA Cup Final, and surely Arsenal will be more motivated to take the points at home to Villa and away to Fulham. However, that motivation will depend largely on the next 2 results. They visit a Bolton team smarting from their FA Cup thrashing at the hands of Stoke last weekend. Bolton appear to have little or nothing to play for at this point, with the Europa League surely out of reach, however, you would expect that they will want to rebound after that defeat to Stoke, and, will have in-form striker Danny Sturridge back in the fold today. Let’s say that out their 4 games not involving Man Utd, Arsenal will garner 10 points, and improve their goal difference by 5 goals-which assuming Man Utd breakeven in goal difference at worst would not be enough to break a tie.
Chelsea moved ahead of Arsenal on goal difference after beating Birmingham 3-1, but still trail Man Utd by 4 goals. Chelsea should take full points at home to West Ham and Newcastle, perhaps able to pad their goal difference in the process. Spurs at home and Everton away are harder to call. Chelsea should have beaten Spurs earlier in the season, even in the midst of their horrific form through November and December, and Spurs are undoubtedly running out of steam, so I’ll assume 3 points (just) from that game as well. Away to Everton on the last day is a tough fixture-Chelsea have beaten Everton in 3 games this season, and Everton could be playing for points to move ahead of Liverpool, but not qualify for the Europa League, so it’s hard to say how motivation that will offer today’s professionals. Let’s say that excluding the Man Utd fixture, Chelsea can also win 10 points, but should improve their goal difference by 7.
Finally to Man Utd-the team very much in the driving seat. So much hinges on today’s game against Everton. Even if Chelsea and Arsenal can beat Man Utd and win their other remaining games (which I have not assumed above), they would need to make up a significant enough goal differential in the process. Given that Man Utd face Blackpool at home, you wouldn’t bet against a 3 or 4 goal haul in that game, which could be the deciding factor in the event of a tie on points. Away to Blackburn shouldn’t really present many difficulties for Man Utd, but, their away form is poor and Blackburn could be desperate for points. Based on their home form, I see Man Utd taking 6 points from Everton and Blackpool, and at best I expect a draw at Ewood Park, so 7 points from 3 games, which would leave Chelsea and Arsenal with 15 points to make up.
Assuming Chelsea and Arsenal both take 10 points from a possible 12 and then beat Man Utd at Old Trafford and the Emirates respectively, they would both finish on 77 points, with Chelsea ahead of Arsenal on goal difference. Man Utd would also finish on 77, perhaps only a goal ahead of Chelsea, assuming they can beat Everton by 2 goals and Blackpool by 3, and only suffering single goal defeats to Chelsea and Arsenal. Wow-looks interesting, doesn’t it?
But, here’s what I think happens in reality. Man Utd beat Everton handily today, Arsenal lose to Bolton and then Man Utd get a result at the Emirates and at least a point from their home game with Chelsea. Assuming they still beat Blackpool and get a point at Ewood Park, they would finish on 79 points, with Chelsea on 75 points, and Arsenal finishing perhaps on 74. Man Utd to regain the title, with one of the lowest points tallies in Premier League history (Man Utd won the league with 75 points in 1996-97).
Only one thing is certain-most of my predictions above will be wrong, but Man Utd will still win the title.
Saturday 23 April 2011
Monday 11 April 2011
Stand and Deliver
So, tomorrow night at Old Trafford an expensively assembled and overpaid squad will attempt to overturn a narrow deficit and force their way into the Semi-Finals of this years Champions League. It's time to put up or shut up. To be honest, a bit more bluster would do no harm I'm sure. Times were more interesting and encounters more fiery when the Special One was around.
In the 1st leg at Stamford Bridge last week, I had to watch (and listen) as the worse than average Carrick and geriatric Giggs schemed to create the scoring chance for the council estate thug Rooney to give Man Utd what could be a decisive lead. Chelsea huffed, but didn't really puff, and Man Utd looked comfortable throughout, helped I'm sure by the fact that Messrs. Ferdinand and Vidic were re-united at the heart of their defence. I'm being a bit unkind to Rooney-this was as well as I'd seen him play in a while, and he showed remarkable self-restraint when being kicked around by Essien and others earlier in the game.
So, tomorrow night, it's going to take something special. Nothing, and I mean nothing, I have seen this season gives me any faith that Chelsea are capable of getting the win in normal time. Fernando has had the time, if not the chances, to open his Chelsea account, but it didn't really look any more likely last week, even though I was relying on the big occasion and the memory of what he's managed to achieve against Vidic and Co in the past to spur him on. Tomorrow night he should have the bile of the thousands in the stands to egg him on-the fact that he has played for Liverpool and was booked for diving last week is sure to attract plenty of of ire from the Stretford End. Hopefully he will feed off this negative energy, but I'm not holding my breath.
Meanwhile, Arsenal managed a win at the seemingly doomed Blackpool to 'stay in contention' for the Premier League title. Please. Arsenal must go to Old Trafford as well as face Spurs and Liverpool in the remaining 5 weeks of the season. If they win even 1 of those games I would be surprised. I for one am giddy at that the thought of Andy Carroll getting in Jens Lehmann's face at a set piece. This recent story suggests that he's still someone with issues. Prior to their win at Blackpool, Arsene Wenger unwisely had a go at the Arsenal supporters-calls for his head likely to grow louder between now and the end of the season-where they will end up, again, with nothing.
As I write this, Liverpool are dismantling Man City at Anfield, watched by the fawning Ray Wilkins-surely the nicest man ever to provide commentary on a football game (he was equally wide eyed and gushing at the Bernabeu last week). I still like him in the job better than the bald Scottish sexist.
In the 1st leg at Stamford Bridge last week, I had to watch (and listen) as the worse than average Carrick and geriatric Giggs schemed to create the scoring chance for the council estate thug Rooney to give Man Utd what could be a decisive lead. Chelsea huffed, but didn't really puff, and Man Utd looked comfortable throughout, helped I'm sure by the fact that Messrs. Ferdinand and Vidic were re-united at the heart of their defence. I'm being a bit unkind to Rooney-this was as well as I'd seen him play in a while, and he showed remarkable self-restraint when being kicked around by Essien and others earlier in the game.
So, tomorrow night, it's going to take something special. Nothing, and I mean nothing, I have seen this season gives me any faith that Chelsea are capable of getting the win in normal time. Fernando has had the time, if not the chances, to open his Chelsea account, but it didn't really look any more likely last week, even though I was relying on the big occasion and the memory of what he's managed to achieve against Vidic and Co in the past to spur him on. Tomorrow night he should have the bile of the thousands in the stands to egg him on-the fact that he has played for Liverpool and was booked for diving last week is sure to attract plenty of of ire from the Stretford End. Hopefully he will feed off this negative energy, but I'm not holding my breath.
Meanwhile, Arsenal managed a win at the seemingly doomed Blackpool to 'stay in contention' for the Premier League title. Please. Arsenal must go to Old Trafford as well as face Spurs and Liverpool in the remaining 5 weeks of the season. If they win even 1 of those games I would be surprised. I for one am giddy at that the thought of Andy Carroll getting in Jens Lehmann's face at a set piece. This recent story suggests that he's still someone with issues. Prior to their win at Blackpool, Arsene Wenger unwisely had a go at the Arsenal supporters-calls for his head likely to grow louder between now and the end of the season-where they will end up, again, with nothing.
As I write this, Liverpool are dismantling Man City at Anfield, watched by the fawning Ray Wilkins-surely the nicest man ever to provide commentary on a football game (he was equally wide eyed and gushing at the Bernabeu last week). I still like him in the job better than the bald Scottish sexist.
Tuesday 5 April 2011
Winding Down
Ok. There have been several false starts since my last posting. So much has happened since then-unless your name is Fernando Torres of course. Between Man Utd. Losing their grip on the Premier League title (only to recover it again after recovering from 2 goals down against Avram Grant’s West Ham at the weekend), to Arsenal fooling with their supporters yet again (getting comprehensively outplayed by Barcelona in the deciding leg of their Champions League clash as well as failing to take 3 points from Sunderland, West Brom or latterly Blackburn, to Ashley Cole going postal on an apprentice, a lot has happened, but not much has really changed.
Liverpool are still a Jekyll and Hyde team-like no other it seems. Sure they have beaten Man Utd and Chelsea under King Kenny’s 2nd coming, but they have also lost to Blackpool, West Ham and now West Brom (managed by someone who seems to have found his level again). Players needed-apply within I guess. Even if he does get the job permanently, I figure Liverpool need at least 4 players to be considered a serious contender for the title itself, let alone the Champions League positions. Ashley Young is a player linked with them consistently-that would help-as would a centre back, left back and probably another midfield player, someone like Joe Cole, not the ghost of Joe Cole, who has been seen around Anfield at times this season. It’s hard to know what they will get from NESV-Meireles was signed by the Texans and the purchase of Suarez and Carroll was essentially self-financed by the sale of Torres. It should be an interesting summer on Merseyside.
I don’t think I’m the only one suggesting that Arsenal need a change of tack. If their current manager is not up to the task of either then they should look elsewhere. This is sacrilege according to most journalists, but what exactly have Arsenal achieved over the past few years, and who should be accountable for the lack of tangible success? Wenger is hailed for the football his side play-pretty at times for sure, but too often impotent and gets a lot of credit for the club’s financial position as well-a laudable objective to be sure, but surely the manager should concentrate on the football at a big club like Arsenal and leave the finances to someone else (like a Director of Football maybe?). Unless Wenger shows a bit more nous in the transfer market (Arshavin and Rosicky have hardly been success stories, Arsenal are said to have passed on the chance to sign Mesut Ozil, Chamakh was free, but hasn’t set the world alight) or changes the way his teams play-unlikely I would say, then Arsenal are simply gambling that the opposition declines enough to allow them to win a title. And if that wasn't this year, then when will it be?
For all his troubles, Wayne Rooney has scored some truly vital goals for Man Utd this season. Witness his ‘spectacular’ overhead kick to win the Manchester derby to Saturday’s hat trick, you can’t deny that his class is still there. Whether a mooted 2 game suspension will do anything to set him back remains to be seen. Yet again, Man Utd seem to ride their luck better than most. If it’s not Rooney escaping what would have been a longer ban for his elbow on James McCarthy, it’s Nemanja Vidic hacking all around him at the weekend, after being booked earlier in the game, and failing to earn a second yellow card. C’est la vie. Regardless of the circumstances, coming from 2 goals down at half-time is worthy of the title, this year anyway. I wouldn’t back against them for the league and cup double at this point either-Man City’s sterile approach to the game-even their manager was ‘surprised’ at their goal scoring exploits against hapless Sunderland at the weekend-suggests that Utd will find a way to win their upcoming FA Cup Semi-Final, which will set them up in a final against either Bolton or Stoke. Ahem. The Champions League? Please.
I have to believe that now is the time for Fernando Torres to ‘finally’ break his goal drought for Chelsea. What better way, time and place to do it than at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night. Although Chelsea’s form has improved since his signing, they still don’t seem like a well oiled outfit. Impressive as he has been, David Luiz showed that he has his faults-it was his rash lunge that allowed Jon Walters to commence his run that led to the opening goal for Stoke at the weekend (even though I still think he looks an excellent signing). Michael Essien still looks a shadow of his former self at times. No matter what combination is tried up front, the participants seem ill disposed to forming a partnership. The league title is surely beyond them now-so surely the Champions League Quarter-Final should see them going for broke. By and large, they now have a full squad to choose from, aside from the cup-tied Luiz and still injured Benayoun (who could feature in the return leg at Old Trafford). For around 40 minutes or so last month, Chelsea showed that they can be a better team than Man Utd-the midfield battle surely favours them if Essien, Lampard and Ramires can play to their potential. Tomorrow night, they need to play at a higher tempo for 90 minutes-their season depends on it at this point, and maybe Ancelotti’s job.
The result from Milan tonight-where Schalke have beaten Inter by 5 goals to 2-should serve as great motivation to whichever English team wins this tie-who will surely be heavily favoured to make the final at Schalke’s expense (I’m assuming that there will be no German miracle for Inter in this round), and, while Barcelona are still the hot favourites (rightfully so), in a one-off game, anything is possible. Chelsea v Barcelona at Wembley? A fitting site for a dish best served cold. But, dominant as Barcelona have been this season, they face a tough enough trip to the Ukraine, and more than likely will have to overcome Real Madrid in the semi-finals (as he showed last year, Mourinho is still a master tactician, but whether he has the players at Madrid to execute the type of game plan that has served him well at Porto, Chelsea and Inter remains to be seen. I suspect not.
I guess I’m getting ahead of myself here, but after tonight’s results, it’s nearly safe to say that Madrid and Schalke will feature in the next round. After tomorrow, I don’t necessarily think the picture will be any clearer, well at least as regards Chelsea/Man Utd, but I’m holding out for a Chelsea/Barcelona final on May 28th.
P.S. I have been saying all season (not on here it seems) that Spurs play schoolboy type football-attack and defend with no ball retention in between. Their tactical ineptness was cruelly (heh heh) exposed tonight, although Peter Crouch playing like Lee Cattermole didn’t help their case.
Liverpool are still a Jekyll and Hyde team-like no other it seems. Sure they have beaten Man Utd and Chelsea under King Kenny’s 2nd coming, but they have also lost to Blackpool, West Ham and now West Brom (managed by someone who seems to have found his level again). Players needed-apply within I guess. Even if he does get the job permanently, I figure Liverpool need at least 4 players to be considered a serious contender for the title itself, let alone the Champions League positions. Ashley Young is a player linked with them consistently-that would help-as would a centre back, left back and probably another midfield player, someone like Joe Cole, not the ghost of Joe Cole, who has been seen around Anfield at times this season. It’s hard to know what they will get from NESV-Meireles was signed by the Texans and the purchase of Suarez and Carroll was essentially self-financed by the sale of Torres. It should be an interesting summer on Merseyside.
I don’t think I’m the only one suggesting that Arsenal need a change of tack. If their current manager is not up to the task of either then they should look elsewhere. This is sacrilege according to most journalists, but what exactly have Arsenal achieved over the past few years, and who should be accountable for the lack of tangible success? Wenger is hailed for the football his side play-pretty at times for sure, but too often impotent and gets a lot of credit for the club’s financial position as well-a laudable objective to be sure, but surely the manager should concentrate on the football at a big club like Arsenal and leave the finances to someone else (like a Director of Football maybe?). Unless Wenger shows a bit more nous in the transfer market (Arshavin and Rosicky have hardly been success stories, Arsenal are said to have passed on the chance to sign Mesut Ozil, Chamakh was free, but hasn’t set the world alight) or changes the way his teams play-unlikely I would say, then Arsenal are simply gambling that the opposition declines enough to allow them to win a title. And if that wasn't this year, then when will it be?
For all his troubles, Wayne Rooney has scored some truly vital goals for Man Utd this season. Witness his ‘spectacular’ overhead kick to win the Manchester derby to Saturday’s hat trick, you can’t deny that his class is still there. Whether a mooted 2 game suspension will do anything to set him back remains to be seen. Yet again, Man Utd seem to ride their luck better than most. If it’s not Rooney escaping what would have been a longer ban for his elbow on James McCarthy, it’s Nemanja Vidic hacking all around him at the weekend, after being booked earlier in the game, and failing to earn a second yellow card. C’est la vie. Regardless of the circumstances, coming from 2 goals down at half-time is worthy of the title, this year anyway. I wouldn’t back against them for the league and cup double at this point either-Man City’s sterile approach to the game-even their manager was ‘surprised’ at their goal scoring exploits against hapless Sunderland at the weekend-suggests that Utd will find a way to win their upcoming FA Cup Semi-Final, which will set them up in a final against either Bolton or Stoke. Ahem. The Champions League? Please.
I have to believe that now is the time for Fernando Torres to ‘finally’ break his goal drought for Chelsea. What better way, time and place to do it than at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night. Although Chelsea’s form has improved since his signing, they still don’t seem like a well oiled outfit. Impressive as he has been, David Luiz showed that he has his faults-it was his rash lunge that allowed Jon Walters to commence his run that led to the opening goal for Stoke at the weekend (even though I still think he looks an excellent signing). Michael Essien still looks a shadow of his former self at times. No matter what combination is tried up front, the participants seem ill disposed to forming a partnership. The league title is surely beyond them now-so surely the Champions League Quarter-Final should see them going for broke. By and large, they now have a full squad to choose from, aside from the cup-tied Luiz and still injured Benayoun (who could feature in the return leg at Old Trafford). For around 40 minutes or so last month, Chelsea showed that they can be a better team than Man Utd-the midfield battle surely favours them if Essien, Lampard and Ramires can play to their potential. Tomorrow night, they need to play at a higher tempo for 90 minutes-their season depends on it at this point, and maybe Ancelotti’s job.
The result from Milan tonight-where Schalke have beaten Inter by 5 goals to 2-should serve as great motivation to whichever English team wins this tie-who will surely be heavily favoured to make the final at Schalke’s expense (I’m assuming that there will be no German miracle for Inter in this round), and, while Barcelona are still the hot favourites (rightfully so), in a one-off game, anything is possible. Chelsea v Barcelona at Wembley? A fitting site for a dish best served cold. But, dominant as Barcelona have been this season, they face a tough enough trip to the Ukraine, and more than likely will have to overcome Real Madrid in the semi-finals (as he showed last year, Mourinho is still a master tactician, but whether he has the players at Madrid to execute the type of game plan that has served him well at Porto, Chelsea and Inter remains to be seen. I suspect not.
I guess I’m getting ahead of myself here, but after tonight’s results, it’s nearly safe to say that Madrid and Schalke will feature in the next round. After tomorrow, I don’t necessarily think the picture will be any clearer, well at least as regards Chelsea/Man Utd, but I’m holding out for a Chelsea/Barcelona final on May 28th.
P.S. I have been saying all season (not on here it seems) that Spurs play schoolboy type football-attack and defend with no ball retention in between. Their tactical ineptness was cruelly (heh heh) exposed tonight, although Peter Crouch playing like Lee Cattermole didn’t help their case.
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