Man Utd v Chelsea Preview

So, Andre Vilas Boas (AvB) takes his 'new' Chelsea team to Old Trafford on Sunday looking for a watershed victory to really kick start his tenure at Stamford Bridge. The start so far has been solid but relatively unimpressive. It looks like change will be a slow process, and to be fair, why should it be any other way, given that this team finished 2nd last year and won it all the year before.

Man Utd rightly start as favourites, and I look at the game in terms of hope rather than expectation. Man Utd have been scoring for fun, and Chelsea have conceded to West Brom, Norwich and Sunderland. I can't see Chelsea shipping 8 or even 5 to Man Utd, but their abilty to score along with Chelsea's propensity to concede to pretty avarage teams concerns me.

But, Man Utd's defence is a strange mix of new and old and not so good at the moment, and Chelsea will have their chances I'm sure. Who starts in the middle of the front 3 will be interesting - it looks as if Drogba is certainly out, Anelka got the start against Sunderland last week, and Torres played against Leverkusen in midweek. Of the 2, I guess I'd have to go for Torres tomorrow - but I was much more optimistic about Torres' goalscoring abaility before the Old Trafford game last April than I am for tomorrow's game, and he was pretty subdued that day.

In saying that, Meireles and Mata look like good signings and just the sort of players that might create the sort of chances Torres needs to thrive. And I can't fault Torres' attitude in general - he played his part on Wednesday night, but I wonder would he have squared that ball if it were anyone other than Mata waiting?

So, Sturridge (who has just the sort of spark Chelsea have needed since they sent him on loan) last season looks certain to occupy the right side of the front 3, with Mata on the left. In midfield, I see Ramires and Meireles starting, with Mikel and Lampard likely to fill the remaining spot. Given it's an away game, I wonder if AvB would opt for Mikel? It would be interesting if Frank Lampard were to be left out for such a big game. On form, Ramires and Meireles deserve their spots and while Mikel has many critics, he is a very steady player, and will happily sit deep allowing those around him to play with more freedom. Lampard's role in the team is no longer clear to me I'm afraid.

At the back, it would be a huge shock if John Terry does not come back in. Given the form of Ashley Young, I'd be inclined to start Ivanovic at right back. This would leave Alex and David Luiz to fill the remainig centre back spot. Luiz of course was probably at fault for Hernandez' early opener in the April game, and seem to come in for unneecessarily harsh and public abuse from the then manager, Ancellotti. He returned to the side in midweek and scored a good goal and played some nice football, but was guilty of 2 reckless fouls that could have seen him sent off. Whether he is truly a centre back remains to be seen. So I would go for Alex - who a lot of people have written off after an average enough display against West Brom. But, I don't think he's a bad player, and maybe the time out has given him a chance to get back his focus. In my view, he was often the best defender behind Ivanovic at times last year.

For Man Utd, there aren't too many difficult choices, although goalkeeper could be an interesting one. Not that Alex Ferguson will entertain such questions. Their front 2 of Rooney and Hernandez and wingmen Young and Nani could cause Chelsea nightmares. Their weak link is probably the centre of midfield, where Chelsea will likely outnumber them in both numbers and quality. But Man Utd will probably move the ball quickly and expect their front players to work back and disrupt Chelsea posession (this could be a huge issue it both Mikel and Lampard play as both can be ponderous in possession these days) and so Chelsea's numerical advantage in that area may count for nothing.

There could be 2 wildcards for Chelsea. One is the defensive minded midfielder Oriel Romeu, who got a run out against Sunderland last weekend and performed steadily in limited action. The other more interesting option for AvB is Romelu Lukaku who could fill the 'No. 9' role - I'd like to see him up against Jonny Evans and giving David De Gea something to think about under the odd high ball. But, in line with the seeming evolution rather than revolution approach at Stamford Bridge, I suspect that a substutute appearance is the most either youngster can expect.

Given Man City's ordinary enough display during the week, a positive result for Chelsea in tomorrow's game could make many hastily re-think their 'only 2 teams can win it' proclomations of recent weeks. I'm not for a moment suggesting that Chelsea should be ranked ahead or Man Utd or Man City, but there's a lot of talent on the pitch and (potentially) on the sideline. I think they will be there or thereabouts come the end of the season. But I don't expect them to win tomorrow.

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Winding Down

Ok. There have been several false starts since my last posting. So much has happened since then-unless your name is Fernando Torres of course. Between Man Utd. Losing their grip on the Premier League title (only to recover it again after recovering from 2 goals down against Avram Grant’s West Ham at the weekend), to Arsenal fooling with their supporters yet again (getting comprehensively outplayed by Barcelona in the deciding leg of their Champions League clash as well as failing to take 3 points from Sunderland, West Brom or latterly Blackburn, to Ashley Cole going postal on an apprentice, a lot has happened, but not much has really changed.

Liverpool are still a Jekyll and Hyde team-like no other it seems. Sure they have beaten Man Utd and Chelsea under King Kenny’s 2nd coming, but they have also lost to Blackpool, West Ham and now West Brom (managed by someone who seems to have found his level again). Players needed-apply within I guess. Even if he does get the job permanently, I figure Liverpool need at least 4 players to be considered a serious contender for the title itself, let alone the Champions League positions. Ashley Young is a player linked with them consistently-that would help-as would a centre back, left back and probably another midfield player, someone like Joe Cole, not the ghost of Joe Cole, who has been seen around Anfield at times this season. It’s hard to know what they will get from NESV-Meireles was signed by the Texans and the purchase of Suarez and Carroll was essentially self-financed by the sale of Torres. It should be an interesting summer on Merseyside.

I don’t think I’m the only one suggesting that Arsenal need a change of tack. If their current manager is not up to the task of either then they should look elsewhere. This is sacrilege according to most journalists, but what exactly have Arsenal achieved over the past few years, and who should be accountable for the lack of tangible success? Wenger is hailed for the football his side play-pretty at times for sure, but too often impotent and gets a lot of credit for the club’s financial position as well-a laudable objective to be sure, but surely the manager should concentrate on the football at a big club like Arsenal and leave the finances to someone else (like a Director of Football maybe?). Unless Wenger shows a bit more nous in the transfer market (Arshavin and Rosicky have hardly been success stories, Arsenal are said to have passed on the chance to sign Mesut Ozil, Chamakh was free, but hasn’t set the world alight) or changes the way his teams play-unlikely I would say, then Arsenal are simply gambling that the opposition declines enough to allow them to win a title. And if that wasn't this year, then when will it be?

For all his troubles, Wayne Rooney has scored some truly vital goals for Man Utd this season. Witness his ‘spectacular’ overhead kick to win the Manchester derby to Saturday’s hat trick, you can’t deny that his class is still there. Whether a mooted 2 game suspension will do anything to set him back remains to be seen. Yet again, Man Utd seem to ride their luck better than most. If it’s not Rooney escaping what would have been a longer ban for his elbow on James McCarthy, it’s Nemanja Vidic hacking all around him at the weekend, after being booked earlier in the game, and failing to earn a second yellow card. C’est la vie. Regardless of the circumstances, coming from 2 goals down at half-time is worthy of the title, this year anyway. I wouldn’t back against them for the league and cup double at this point either-Man City’s sterile approach to the game-even their manager was ‘surprised’ at their goal scoring exploits against hapless Sunderland at the weekend-suggests that Utd will find a way to win their upcoming FA Cup Semi-Final, which will set them up in a final against either Bolton or Stoke. Ahem. The Champions League? Please.

I have to believe that now is the time for Fernando Torres to ‘finally’ break his goal drought for Chelsea. What better way, time and place to do it than at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night. Although Chelsea’s form has improved since his signing, they still don’t seem like a well oiled outfit. Impressive as he has been, David Luiz showed that he has his faults-it was his rash lunge that allowed Jon Walters to commence his run that led to the opening goal for Stoke at the weekend (even though I still think he looks an excellent signing). Michael Essien still looks a shadow of his former self at times. No matter what combination is tried up front, the participants seem ill disposed to forming a partnership. The league title is surely beyond them now-so surely the Champions League Quarter-Final should see them going for broke. By and large, they now have a full squad to choose from, aside from the cup-tied Luiz and still injured Benayoun (who could feature in the return leg at Old Trafford). For around 40 minutes or so last month, Chelsea showed that they can be a better team than Man Utd-the midfield battle surely favours them if Essien, Lampard and Ramires can play to their potential. Tomorrow night, they need to play at a higher tempo for 90 minutes-their season depends on it at this point, and maybe Ancelotti’s job.

The result from Milan tonight-where Schalke have beaten Inter by 5 goals to 2-should serve as great motivation to whichever English team wins this tie-who will surely be heavily favoured to make the final at Schalke’s expense (I’m assuming that there will be no German miracle for Inter in this round), and, while Barcelona are still the hot favourites (rightfully so), in a one-off game, anything is possible. Chelsea v Barcelona at Wembley? A fitting site for a dish best served cold. But, dominant as Barcelona have been this season, they face a tough enough trip to the Ukraine, and more than likely will have to overcome Real Madrid in the semi-finals (as he showed last year, Mourinho is still a master tactician, but whether he has the players at Madrid to execute the type of game plan that has served him well at Porto, Chelsea and Inter remains to be seen. I suspect not.

I guess I’m getting ahead of myself here, but after tonight’s results, it’s nearly safe to say that Madrid and Schalke will feature in the next round. After tomorrow, I don’t necessarily think the picture will be any clearer, well at least as regards Chelsea/Man Utd, but I’m holding out for a Chelsea/Barcelona final on May 28th.

P.S. I have been saying all season (not on here it seems) that Spurs play schoolboy type football-attack and defend with no ball retention in between. Their tactical ineptness was cruelly (heh heh) exposed tonight, although Peter Crouch playing like Lee Cattermole didn’t help their case.

Blue Moon rising, but the sky is not falling

So Chelsea have been defeated. I for one wasn't surprised-beating West Ham, Blackpool, West Brom and Wigan are hardly the test of champions, and I didn't see anything in those games to suggest that Chelsea were worthy of being crowned champions for 2010/11 at this point. Man City are strong in midfield, and took their goal very well. A draw or even a Chelsea win wouldn't have been an unfair reflection, but thanks to Joe Hart (double save from Ivanovic in the 1st half) and Carlos Tevez, City shaded Chelsea's first true test. For Chelsea, it was surprising to see Didier Drogba being substituted with the game far from over, and it's clear that Ramires is still getting used to life in the Premier League.

Luckily for Chelsea, Arsenal inexplicably lost at home to West Brom and Man Utd had to come from behind to save a point at Bolton, and so Chelsea still lead the chasing pack by 3 points and have a very healthy goal difference (12 better off than their nearest challengers).

Chelsea's next 2 games will give them the chance to show their mettle-away to Aston Villa and home to Arsenal offer the chance to get back on track, but won't be easy (Villa were the only team to take 6 points from Chelsea last season), and they will have to face both teams without Frank Lampard. Man Utd don't look like regaining form any time soon-but for the Ghost of Michael Owen, they would have lost yesterday-Bolton certainly looked the more likely winners for much of the 2nd half. Wayne Rooney's issues and absence aren't helping-but neither is leaking goals at a rate of over 1 per game-a record worse than nearly 50% of the other Premier League teams. Arsenal can make a real statement by beating Chelsea at the Emirates, but how likely is that given that the form of Manuel Almunia (I fully agree with George Graham's views here) and the potential absence of Fabergas and van Persie, not to mention Theo Walcott?

In other news, Spurs have already lost to both Wigan and West Ham (18th and 19th in the latest Premier League table), Liverpool will do well to match Fulham's record under Roy Hodgson last season, and Everton continue to struggle,finding themselves at the bottom of the table after the weekend's games. Early days for sure, but these putative Champions League place challengers have a lot of ground to make up on the current front runners.

One way or another, Manchester will deny Chelsea the title this season

4-2? At home? To Man City? Really? Yes, it was that bad. Chelsea succumed to a team that had failed to win any of their other games this season against the putative top 4. After taking a (deserved) lead late in the 1st half, indecision and incompetence allowed Man City to equalise and it all went downhill from there. Jon Obi Mikel is clearly not good enough to play a key role in a championship contending team, and to me, John Terry no longer instils a sense of confidence in the rest of the team. Mikel's replacement, the ageing Beletti, also showed his lack of quality in earning himself a red card in conceding a penalty that made the score 3-1 (although, it begs the question, what was the difference between Beletti's offense and that committed by Walter Samuel in the San Siro earlier that week?).

If Chelsea are to win the Premier League this season, it is going to require what would appear to be a flawless 2 months on the run-in. You can argue the point, but I think that it's fair to say that with trips to Old Trafford, Anfield, White Hart Lane and a visit from Aston Villa that they have a pretty tough run-in. And they must do it without both 1st choice full backs after Jose Bosingwa joined Ashley Cole on the 'out for the season' list earlier this week. I'm pretty sure Zhirkov will be an excellent replacement if he can stay fit, and Ivanovic has shown he has decent attacking abilities (see his run in the San Siro),so maybe they will be ok. Time will tell, but Michael Owen's loss could be a factor in determining whether or not the title returns to London-I don't believe that Wayne Rooney's run of goalscoring from can run all the way to the end of the season, and Dimitar Berbetov hasn't shown that he is ready or willing to pick up the slack. But, let us not forget that there is always the chance another Fedrico Macheda will surface (Mame Diouf?)

The other London team were hit with yet another broken leg last weekend. Arsene Wenger and Cesc Fabregas were understandably upset after the game, but I thought their comments were out of order. Still, when I saw Liam Fox of Burnley (who escaped with merely a talking to) dive 2 footed at Theo Walcott (who was lucky to avoid injury) earlier today, I wonder if maybe they have a point.

The long and ridiculous saga at Fratton Park appears to be drawing to a sadly inevitable close with administration, the loss of 9 points and almost certain relegation assured. This sort of scenario isn't unusual in the lower leagues or the League of Ireland, and I'm not surprised it has happened in the Premier League, but it's not something you want to see in the putative 'best league in the world'.

Far from Good My Son

Will the defeat on Merseyside mark a pivotal point in Chelsea’s chase for the title? Bad enough to surrender an early lead, but the loss of Ashley Cole, possibly for the remainder of the season, made a bad night worse. All of this while Man Utd were down to 10 men and level with Aston Villa. Chelsea stay top, but their form away from Stamford Bridge, their propensity to concede from set pieces and the fact they still have to travel to both Old Trafford and Anfield doesn't fill me with confidence for their prospects for the months ahead.

Chelsea have Michael Essien to come back of course, but Man Utd have managed ok without Ferdinand and Vidic. And, I think it would be fair to say that Chelsea will miss Ashley Cole more (and for a longer period of time) than Man Utd will miss Ryan Giggs. At least expensive Russian recruit Yuri Zhirkov can step in-a proper left sided player, but he lacks Premiership experience, and I would question his defensive qualities at this point.

Let’s face facts-Ricardo Carvalho ain’t getting any younger, John Terry ain’t getting any better and Petr Cech hasn’t looked or played like Petr Cech since he met Stephen Hunt. Chelsea’s Achilles heel may very well be the centre of their defence and their goalkeeper. Someone like (confessed Chelsea fan) Roger Johnson would fit in very well at Stamford Bridge next season, but for the remainder of this season, Chelsea must make a better fist of the basics of defending than they have done to date.

Around the league, Liverpool did their best of making a mockery of my prediction that they would finish ahead of Arsenal in 3^rd place by losing 1-0 at the Emirates. Spurs stay 6^th and within a point of 4^th, despite losing 1-0 to Hull City, underling what a truly mediocre Premier League this has been to date. Man City have still not established any kind of consistency, but get the chance to make a statement when they visit Chelsea on February 27.

The January transfer window closed without much to get writing about-all I’ll say about Robbie Keane’s move to Celtic is that his career appears to have come full circle.

The Post without a title

As January turns to February and the snows melt, we enter a few weeks that could go some way to deciding Premier League Champions 2009/10.

Chelsea have weathered the African Nations Cup absences without dropping points, and scoring goals at an impressive clip-19 goals in 5 games without their African quartet, and a 100% record in both league and FA Cup. Aside from the injury to Michael Essien (which to me seemed like it was caused during a challenge with Didier Drogba!), Chelsea go into next weekend's (pivotal?) clash with Arsenal in rude health (an update on Ashley Cole's early departure at Burnley yesterday is pending). I have to say that Carlo appears to have got his team selections right of late-I lamented the fact that he opted for a lone striker at home to woeful Sunderland, yet they scored 7 goals. Against Burnley, Drogba was omitted from the squad, yet Anelka's early tap-in and John Terry's late winner got them 3 points. In addition, Ricardo Carvalho has received regular rest, with Alex proving to be an adequate replacement (albeit against some of the Premier League's lesser attacking forces).

Meanwhile, Man Utd and Arsenal have maintained their challenge, despite ceding top spot to Chelsea. Wayne Rooney's form has been excellent (I was hugely unimpressed with his performance at Hull on the December 27, but he's been all goals since.

In the battle for scraps, my money remains on Liverpool. As unimpressive as they have been for so long this season, they remain in the hunt, and despite the fact that they lacked both Gerrard and Torres in their Anfield clash with Spurs, they never looked in danger of losing the game, and were worthy of the 3 points. Prior to this, Spurs has failed to beat (or score on) Hull City at White Hart Lane.

Check back during the week when I'll react to Arsenal v Man Utd, preview Chelsea v Arsenal, and give my predictions for top 6 and bottom 3.

A Festive Feast of less than Fantastic Football

Watching games over the Xmas period, I am beginning to think that a festive break might be in order for the Premier League. The quality of play in the Hull v Man Utd and Aston Villa v Liverpool games was such that it would have been more entertaining for a supporter to stay home and watch the Great Escape or Wallace and Gromit. For the armchair fan, like myself, it's great having live sport to watch when pubs are closed or it's too icy too venture outside safely, but the quality of much of what was on show in the back end of 2009 was such that I wondered whether some players were guilty of eating and drinking as much as an above average slob as myself-there certainly were a lot of sluggish performances.

As to some of the results themselves:

• Birmingham 0-0 Chelsea. Chelsea's less than impressive sequence of results continued, albeit away to in-form Birmingham, for whom on loan Joe Hart was in inspired form. Christian Benitez scored a perfectly good goal but was incorrectly flagged for offside (thanks to Didier Drogba lying prone in his own 6 yard box.....), and Alex hit the bar with a thunderous free kick. Chelsea certainly didn't play well enough to win and a draw was probably a fair result.
• Arsenal 3-0 Aston Villa. The beginning of the end for Aston Villa's Champions League quest? I think so. Villa were ok for the first 15 minutes or so, but really lost their way after that-Stillian Petrov looked a spent force and James Milner looked out of place in the centre of Villa's midfield. For Arsenal-the same old story-some lovely passing and counter-attacking, but a serious lack of execution in the basics of heading and shooting meant that it needed the introduction of not fully fit Cesc Febergas to change the game for Arsenal. Eduardo is really lacking confidence up front and Andrey Arshavin was largely anonymous. Arsenal could really do with adding a striker (not just a forward player), or hope that the return of Nicklas Bendtner can help make up for the loss of Robin van Persie for much of the rest of the season.
• Hull 1-Man Utd 3. What an awful game. After watching Chelsea play just ok and fail to win at Bermingham, I was worried that Man Utd would come out and crush Hull and gain the upper hand in the title race. Not exactly. What an awful game-it was hard to see why Wayne Rooney could be considered one of Europe's best, and why Ryan Giggs was in the running for player of the year less than 6 months ago. Hull look doomed-the loss of Jimmy Bullard until February is a blow for sure, but they look a worse team than West Ham and even Portsmouth based on what I saw on December 26th. Their comeback from 2-0 down away to Bolton did for Gary Megson-and rightly so I would say-but they are not a team I want to see staying in the Premier League.
• Wolves 0-3 Man City. The Roberto Mancini era has started well at Man City, but when the opposition is as toothless as Stoke and then Wolves, it's nothing that should excite the blue half of Manchester too much. Wolves play a nice enough brand of football-but never looked like scoring a goal in this game-Kevin Doyle is good worker and runs the channels tirelessly, but he never looks like regaining the scoring form of his Reading days. Chris Iwelumo? Well, he's not bad as a target man, but this suggests that he won't score many in the Premier League. As for City, they remain indebted to Shay Given for keeping them in may games and to Craig Bellamy for always giving 100%. Robinho looks desperately out of shape and disinterested-it will be interesting to see whether Mancini can succeed in getting him in shape and contributing like a player that cost Man City £25 million. Stories linking him with Bercelona don't hold any water with me-isn't this the same club that cut loose another Brazilian malcontent (Ronaldinho) at the start of the Guardiola era? It's hard to believe they would risk disrupting the best team in Europe with an overweight, out of form ex-Real Madrid player.
• Aston Villa 0-1 Liverpool. 2 of the top 6 sides in the Premier League? Jesus wept. There are very few strikers who have the finishing touch of Fernando Torres-he was the only difference between what looked like 2 very average teams.
  

Here's hoping the level of quality increases in 2010 and that the Premier League is won on merit rather than by default.