Saturday 28 May 2011

Quick Hits-Champions League Final

Barcelona typially enjoy 60-70% possession-but they will have to make better use of the ball than they have done against the likes of Arsenal, Inter and Chelsea in the past. Man Utd are renowned for punishing teams that don't take chances.

Rumours are that Man Utd will start with Fletcher. I don't really agree with this decision. He hasn't played in a while, and Hernandez could be a real thorn in Barcelona's side, especially if Mascherano plays centre back.

In saying that, it's hard to believe that Man Utd could survive with Carrick and Giggs in the centre. And, Hernandez can be just as effective coming on as a sub. Assuming the game hasn't got away from Utd at that point.

Lionel Messi is the best player in the world. It's on nights like these, players like him show their worth. But, if you looking for a guy to get a key goal, look no further than Andres Iniesta.

I'm not sure on Carles Puyol's ability to match up against Valencia if he does line out at left back.

Sergio Busquets is becoming one of the most hated figures in European football. It will be interesting to see if he adds to this reputation tonight. I don't like this aspect of Barcelona's game for sure (I've seen it against Chelsea more than once), however, I do think that the good outweighs the bad. No team is perfect.

Ibrhaim Affelay could be a real game changer from the bench for Barcelona. Maybe Nani for Man Utd also.

Rumours are that this could be Pep Guardiola's last game in charge of Barcelona and that he could leave to take over at Stamford Bridge next season. Would I like to see this? Yes. Will it happen? No.

My prediction: 2-1 to Barcelona. Scorers: Messi, Iniesta, Rooney.

Saturday 7 May 2011

Sunday Showdown

So my predictions of 2 weeks ago are already looking foolish. Arsenal turned the world on its head last weekend by beating Man Utd at the Emirates, a victory it has to be said, was richly deserved. So Chelsea go into this Sunday's clash at Old Trafford with a chance to catch and overtake Man Utd at the top of the Premier League, with only 2 games to play thereafter. Given that both sides are level on goal difference, the margin of any victory will be vital. But, let's not get ahead of ourselves, a Chelsea victory is far from assured, despite Man Utd's wobbles and Chelsea's apparent return to form.

Chelsea, it has to be said, were somewhat fortunate to overcome Spurs last weekend. A combination of 'Arry's lack of tactical ability, his Brazilian goalkeeper's proclivity for English style error and match officials who cannot even get the basics right (ball not over the line, offside in the 6 yard box etc.). Still, they did boss the game and Sandro's audacious strike aside, Spurs offered little. Chelsea go into Sunday's clash buoyed by their come from behind victory, but with an all to familiar selection dilemma looming.

Torres has received much criticism-so much so that I wonder if those dishing it out actually watch him play for Chelsea? Fine, I have blue tinted glasses, but I think it's wide of the mark to say that he himself has played poorly-it still seems to me that the team is not set up to create the sort of chances on which Torres has thrived. Should he start on Sunday? Maybe not, but I'm not sure if we'll see the same sort of performance we saw from Drogba during his cameo at Old Trafford in the 2nd leg of the Champions League Semi-Final last month. And, I always feel that Kalou offers more as a sub than as a starter. Nicolas Anelka seems to be the forgotten man in all this-as is fitting for someone who had a game to forget against Man Utd at Stamford Bridge in the 1st leg of aforementioned Semi-Final-so it's unlikely that Ancelotti would start him. So, if it's to be 4-3-3, it seems like it will be Malouda, Drogba and Kalou. I was hopeful of Torres providing a spark the last time the teams met-that didn't happen, but perhaps Sunday is the time when he will be sprung from the bench to put Chelsea back to the top of the table. I live in hope rather than expectation.

Largely lost in Chelsea's recent 'resurgence' has been the return to the side of John Obi Mikel, who didn't feature (save for a brief substitute appearance) against Man Utd recently. Many scoff at my view that Mikel is an important player for Chelsea, given the system and way they play, but David Pleat (of all people..) pretty much sums up my views on Mikel in yesterday's Guardian. Mikel should start tomorrow, thereby giving Chelsea more shape in the middle and allowing Lampard and Essien to get forward more often. Chelsea were the last team to beat Man Utd at Old Trafford, and that was at a key moment around this time last year. The omens are good, but, regardless of the result on Sunday, Man Utd are still in the driving seat with games against Blackburn and Blackpool to come-thus giving them the edge in the opportunity to generate superior goal difference (Chelsea face Newcastle and Everton). Still, it's one thing to score goals freely when there is no pressure to do so, but when you need to score 3,4 or 5 goals in a game, the situation changes dramatically. I'll not get ahead of myself however, Sunday is enough of a challenge in itself. I'll back my boys for a result-there haven't been many (any?) in big games this season-they are due.

Looking at last Sunday's game at the Emirates, it was noticeable that Arsenal achieved their victory with Cesc Fabergas. I don't doubt the player's class, but I've been saying for a while that now is the time for Arsenal to cash in and trust their future to Wilshire, Song and Ramsey. Selling Cesc would generate enough funds to allow Arsenal to invest in players of both experience and quality-the kind that they have lacked at key moments this season.

At the other end of the table, Wigan and West Ham look best equipped to survive the drop, but Blackburn's points and goal difference advantage means that they may escape, however their fixtures are against them (away to both West Ham and Wolves, home to Man Utd) and I wouldn't be surprised to see them come away with nothing from their last 3 games. But, the fact that they hold the advantage right now and that no team in the bottom 5 is showing any kind of form (only Sunderland and Newcastle have earned less points in the past 5 games than those currently in the bottom 5) means that they might just hang on. Wigan to hold out also, given West Ham's awful form (0 points from 15), Blackpool's woeful defence (conceding an average of 2 per game), and Wolves' inability to beat mediocre opposition (over half their points have come from games with teams in the top half of the table). Happy trails Blackpool, West Ham and Wolves. I'd fancy the latter 2 to make a swift enough return, although the owners commitment to West Ham is tenuous at best.

The FA decided to give this afternoon's match at Loftus Road the party atmosphere it deserved by declaring prior to kick off that QPR would not be deducted points for transfer irregularities and so are now assured of promotion to the Premier League. They will be joined by Norwich City, whose ascent is quite remarkable given their financial situation, the subject of recent analysis by the always interesting Swiss Rambler. Good to see 2 teams that lit up the early days of the Premier League back in the big time. Based on today's results, they look like there's a fair chance they will be joined in next year's Premier League by, for the first time, a Welsh team, as both Swansea and Cardiff find themselves on opposite sides of the draw in the Championship play-offs, however Cardiff's form has been woeful of late and they enter a play off clash with in form Reading in bad shape. Nottingham Forest are the 4th teams in the play-offs and also have a 'historic' Premier League pedigree, but Reading are probably the team to watch.