Thursday 16 February 2012

So, Who Will Blink First?

In the aftermath of Saturday’s disappointing defeat to Everton, there has been a wealth of ink dedicated to detailing what appear to be serious cracks in the relationship between Andre Villas Boas and his players. All this takes place against a backdrop of the reported continued presence of Roman Abramovich around the Cobham training ground.

Who is Roman there to keep an eye on? Is if the underperforming players or the ever more desperate and seemingly lost young manager?

Chelsea need to change, to develop. 1 year is a short time frame and perhaps it’s not reasonable to expect results to match the level of expectation at this stage. But the type of performance that was seen last weekend (flat) and the weekend previously (when Chelsea found a way not to win the game against Man Utd despite leading 3-0 after around 50 minutes) is not really acceptable. In the Man Utd game, the manager must face questions, especially over his choice of substitutes. However the players must take the majority of the blame for the Everton performance – it wasn’t the tactics, that’s for sure. So what course of action should be taken from here?

For me, it is simple. The revolving door policy for managers needs to stop. This is for a number of reasons. Firstly, Chelsea have spent an obscene amount of money (£64m) firing managers in the past 3 financial periods. This is the very definition of dead money. The corollary to this is that the termination clause in the current manager’s contract is ‘only’ £5m – not a huge amount of money by Chelsea’s standards. The next reason is that this is the first time Chelsea appear to have a long-term plan and want their manager to develop younger players rather than relying heavily on expensive veterans. A more experienced or big name manager would likely demand a large transfer kitty come the summer – that appears to go against what the club should and need to do – for both long term sustainability and short term financial reasons.

The importance of finishing 4th (4th is the best than can be hoped for at this point) cannot be understated for the club’s financial position and its ability to attract players. Chelsea received £44m for reaching the quarter-finals of last season’s Champions League, whereas Porto received less than £8m for winning the Europa League. This for me is the only compelling reason why the club would get rid of Villas Boas at this stage – Chelsea’s form is getting worse, and given that he does not seem to have the trust/support of the players, or indeed a sizeable number of fans, you would wonder how it will improve. The potential bounce that someone like, say, Guus Hiddink could provide in the short-term cannot be underestimated. But then Chelsea are back to square 1 – they need a manager and are no closer to meeting their long term goals.

If it’s the case that it’s the players or the manager, I asked the question earlier in the week ‘who has the most long-term value to Chelsea’ – is it the young and apparently talented manager or the aging and seemingly disgruntled senior players? Of the 3 answers I got, 2 seemed to feel that the manager should be cut loose. My view is pretty simple – back the manager, at least for another season. There is still a chance that Chelsea surge into 4th, and then, he has the entire summer to get what he needs to develop his side for next season, at the same time allowing those who don’t want to be a part of his project leave.

Monday 30 January 2012

The Mask is Slipping

So here we are. More than halfway through the season, and I think it’s fair to say, it’s been a letdown. Last season, despite an atrocious run of form either side of the Christmas period, Chelsea managed to finish 2nd in the Premier League and lost out to eventual runners-up Man Utd in the Champions League Quarter Finals.

Having lost 9 and drew 8 games all season, Chelsea have already lost 5 and drawn 5, so arguably are on the same pace as they were last season, but the opposition has improved – Man City and Spurs are on track to finish with more points than they ended up with last season, while Chelsea are on track to finish on 70 points – 1 point worse off than under Carlo Ancellotti last season – leaving us in 4th place. Contrast this with Spurs (on track to finish 19 points better off), Man City (21 points better off), Man Utd, (7 points better off) and you wonder – what was the point in getting rid of Ancelotti?

Today’s rumblings from Stamford Bridge have reinforced this belief. The manager seems to be entirely focused on the short-term – which is fine, but the results or the football haven’t been good enough to justify this sort of view. Maybe AvB feels under so much pressure that he has reverted into a conservative shell that sees Chelsea playing bland football and generally achieving victory by the narrowest of margins. That’s fair enough, but I thought he came with a mandate to play a more attacking form of football, or at least a more open brand that would yield more goals. This, allied with a financially rewarding termination clause in his contract should surely have encouraged him to foster a new approach at Stamford Bridge.
Let me clarify – I wanted Ancelotti to go at the end of last season as I felt that he was not the man to engineer the necessary changes at Stamford Bridge to ensure Chelsea’s continued competitiveness on both the domestic and European fronts. I welcomed the appointment of AvB as a young manager with interesting ideas and looked forward to an infusion of fresh talent and a new and more exciting brand of football. So far, I feel like I’ve been short changed.

For all the excitement and openness seen in games against Man Utd and Arsenal, Chelsea have largely reverted to the bland unimaginative football that became the norm under Ancelotti. Only the addition of Mata has brought any real imagination or creativity, and as he is only a cog in a bigger machine, we see only fleeting glimpses of his undoubted genius. Not since Zola have Chelsea had such a player, and hopefully we see more of him in a more influential role. So far, he has largely been used as an auxiliary winger, and much like Sturridge, I have to question if the manager is getting the best out of him in such a role.

And aside from the football itself, the development of the personnel is moving at a slower pace than I would like to see. Again, in today’s press conference, AvB apparently disavowed any interest in anything other than the short-term and seemed to have little to say on the potential role of Kevin De Bruyne at the club. Josh McEachran was allowed to fester on the fringes of the first team squad for much of the first half of the season before being allowed to join Swansea during over the January transfer window. I guess it might have been asking a lot for a loan to be arranged during the summer when AvB was not long in the job, but at the same time, it doesn’t appear that Josh got many chances to prove himself from September to January, although I will admit that I know nothing of what goes on on the training ground.

The most grievous mistake (as yet unpunished) is the failure to give Ryan Bertrand more first team opportunities. I have no idea if Bertrand is a tremendous prospect or not, but he’s all Chelsea have in terms of an alternative to Ashley Cole, who is no longer a dashing twentysomething, but has so far managed to avoid any meaningful absence through injury or suspension this season. The role of Romelu Lukaku has been a puzzle as well – someone who (physically) looks like he’s cut out for the Premier League as well as being a fresh face, has received little game time. Only Oriel Romeu has seen significant first team action so far, and his form has been encouraging. So let’s see more youth, eh?

It’s been a frustrating few weeks. The next 6 weeks will go a long way to determine whether this will be a successful season. Man Utd at the weekend, Napoli home and away and Birmingham in the FA Cup, and an away trip to Man City. There are also plenty of ‘easier’ ties, but nothing feels easy at the moment. If it doesn’t work out with AvB, I know of someone else who may be available next season. You know what I mean.